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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 487.75 Fair value 559.82 One-star price 642.54
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (487.75) to the one-star price (642.54).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): USD/EUR |
| Exchange Rate: 1.1172 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 538.40 |
| Price - 12 month high | 672.98 |
| Price - 12 month low | 408.39 |
| Pricing date | 27 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 2.02 |
| Market capitalization | 110,686.54 |
| 12 Month High price date | 29 OCT 2025 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 6 FEB 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 1.75 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -3.07% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 5.25% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 24.00% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 2.49% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -17.60% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -6.64% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 8.22% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 10.510 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 14.120 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 12.768 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 81.640 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 89.905 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 40.465 |
| Book value per share - most recent quarter | 42.518 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 35.004 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent quarter | 36.934 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 25.545 |
| Cash per share - most recent quarter | 29.341 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 12.755 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 14.975 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 15.797 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 10.770 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 14.380 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 10.770 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 14.380 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 14.721 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 32.82 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 33.74 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 5.15 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 12.85 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 31.48 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 30.95 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 11.17 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 158.25 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 27.17 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -9,436.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -7,511.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 2,624.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.20% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 23.48% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent quarter | 4.47% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent quarter | 5.17% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 3,080.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 17,186.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 18,810.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 2,112.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 3,305.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 2,224.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 3,383.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 2,212.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 2,958.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2,702.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 13.74 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 12.87% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 15.73% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 12.79% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 14.58% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 17.99% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 12.94% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 2.70% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 3.42% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 7.13% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 16.37% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 2.42% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 16.30% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 20.86% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 32.05% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 35.86% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 4.19% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 5.45% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 303,554.27 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 2,358,446.55 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 16.88% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 14.21% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 13.59% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 22.37% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | -4.80% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (USD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | ||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (EUR, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
Announcements are available for ASX-listed companies only.
Spotify (SPOT) delivered a solid third-quarter result overnight, with user and subscriber growth holding up well and the margin outlook coming in better than feared. Revenue was broadly in line, but the market focused on improving profitability and healthy premium subscriber trends, sending the shares up over 11%.
Spotify delivered a broadly solid second quarter, with operating profit, margins and premium subscriber growth ahead of expectations. However, shares traded modestly lower, down 1.7%, after third-quarter guidance for monthly active users and operating income fell short of consensus.
A very interesting investor day held by Spotify overnight, laying out a series of ambitious long-term targets and a broader premium product roadmap. The most obvious aspect we took from this update was that Spotify wants the market to think less about quarterly subscriber volatility and more about its ability to grow revenue, expand margins and monetise its very large user base more effectively over time. This is a big shift away from a land grab type approach to one focussed on sensible monetisation of their huge 300m user base.
Spotify delivered a solid March quarter result overnight, but as is generally the case, the focus was on guidance, and it was underwhelming. Shares fell ~12%. We own Spotify in the International Equities Portfolio and continue to like the medium-term story, though the overnight update shows why we’ve retained a smaller ~3% weighting as the monetisation of the huge user base take shape. This was the area within the guidance that underwhelmed.
SPOT US shares ripped higher overnight (up as much as ~18% at the peak), its biggest intraday move since 2019, after a strong 4Q result and an upbeat 1Q outlook that directly addresses one of the market’s biggest concerns: margin sustainability. We own the stock, and this was a very good update.
We are two new positions to the International Equities Portfolio
Spotify is one of those rare global platforms that's become a daily habit for hundreds of millions of people. It's now the clear leader in audio streaming, with over 700 million monthly active users and around 280 million paying subscribers across 180 markets - phenomenal scale. For years, the story was all about growth at any cost - build scale, own the customer relationship, and keep expanding.
MM remains long & bullish SPOT ~$US580
MM remains long & bullish SPOT US~$US480
MM is long & bullish SPOT US ~$US490
MM remains cautiously bullish SPOT ~$US434
MM is long and bullish SPOT, and will look to add to our position
MM is buying SPOT US in the International Equities Portfolio, targeting a 3% weighting around $US610
MM is bullish on SPOT US ~$US640
Spotify is the leading global music streaming service, with over 750 million monthly active users and nearly 300 million paying subscribers, with the latter constituting the firm's premium segment. Most of the firm's revenue and nearly allits gross profit come from subscribers, who pay a monthly fee to access a music library that includes most of the most popular songs ever recorded, including all from the major record labels. The firm also offers access to audiobooks and integrates podcasts within its standard music app. Podcast content is not exclusive and is typically free to access on other platforms. Ad-supported users can access a similar music catalog, but cannot customize a similar on-demand experience.
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