Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) $US68.67
This week, we sent a note to Members and Investors on the importance of monitoring fundamental trends within company earnings, and why MM intends to place greater weight on this measure within our investment process.
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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 69.73 Fair value 83.22 One-star price 99.30
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (69.73) to the one-star price (99.30).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): USD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 63.26 |
| Price - 12 month high | 116.72 |
| Price - 12 month low | 61.40 |
| Pricing date | 10 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 43.69 |
| Market capitalization | 265,022.27 |
| 12 Month High price date | 13 NOV 2025 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 36.64 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -1.08% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -17.08% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -27.69% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -0.25% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -43.52% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -32.54% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -10.01% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.530 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 3.463 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2.618 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 10.402 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 11.654 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 6.304 |
| Book value per share - most recent quarter | 7.132 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | -1.460 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent quarter | -1.295 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.140 |
| Cash per share - most recent quarter | 1.996 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.441 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.272 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 7.846 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.580 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 3.518 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.580 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 3.520 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.054 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 18.64 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 18.12 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 5.54 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | — |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 21.14 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 19.72 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 9.05 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 48.35 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 17.90 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 6,909.44 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 5,400.48 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 9,917.27 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 50.59% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 54.34% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent quarter | 43.22% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent quarter | 51.67% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 13,031.65 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 45,183.04 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 49,734.63 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 30,082.16 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 33,485.96 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 12,722.55 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 17,700.32 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 10,981.20 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 14,766.65 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 13,163.35 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 3.56 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 24.30% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 29.69% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 29.49% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 31.30% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 35.59% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 28.16% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 23.10% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 21.69% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 15.79% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 26.20% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 18.82% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 20.38% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 25.58% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 43.48% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 51.58% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 15.30% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 34.94% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 686,325.06 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 2,823,939.75 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 12.57% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 33.00% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 13.58% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 12.64% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 36.49% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 20.33% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 6.69% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 14.17% |
Financial forecast (USD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | ||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
Announcements are available for ASX-listed companies only.
This week, we sent a note to Members and Investors on the importance of monitoring fundamental trends within company earnings, and why MM intends to place greater weight on this measure within our investment process.
NFLX was the only major tech name managing to eke out strong gains overnight, adding to the previous sessions' drive higher after the streaming business reported its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday.
Netflix (NFLX US) slipped -0.6% overnight making fresh 4-month lows in the process, never a good sign in a positive session. NFLX has been letting its peers down in the FANG+ Index, it remains over 40% below its 2021 high while other big tech names such as Microsoft (MSFT US) and Apple Inc (AAPL US) have been posting fresh all-time highs in recent months.
The US market closed basically unchanged overnight as investors weighed further bank earnings against additional comments from 2 Fed officials who favour ongoing rate hikes to combat inflation. Goldman Sachs (GS US) slipped lower following its report while the Bank of America (BAC US) rose, its extremely early in reporting season but the VIX is comfortable trading at its lowest level since January .
Netflix rallied another +4.4% overnight, this subscription streaming service has now more than doubled over the last 6 months after plunging from late 2021 illustrating the ability to bounce by the battered growth stocks.
Netflix has plunged over 70% from its 2022 high illustrating both perfectly and painfully that when stocks which are priced for growth disappoint with their earnings / outlook they will be savaged by the market i.e. the first loss as painful as it may be is regularly the best loss!
The world’s largest streaming provider fell 35% overnight and is now down ~70% from its 2021 peak following a decline in subscriber numbers in the first quarter of the year. Netflix has been growing at a rate of around 25mn new subscribers per year delivering it a paid user base of an astonishing 221.6mn, however, Q1 saw a loss of 200,000, the first loss in a decade, plus they flagged more declines...
Netflix has weighed heavily on the tech sector having more than halved from its late 2021 high as investors clearly decided that the company’s performance didn’t warrant the huge valuation it had previously enjoyed. However after plunging so far we believe the risk / reward now favours the aggressive trader under the $US380 level – MM can see a test of $US450 in the coming weeks / months.
Netflix has halved through recent months on weaker than expected subscriber growth. We believe the risk / reward is attractive for aggressive players buying NFLX under $US350 targeting a 20-25% bounce but I stress this is more of a trade as we aren’t looking to accumulate this streaming company long term into current weakness.
Netflix saw its stock plunge last month as subscriber growth slowed, we are now in a very unforgiving market when it comes to high valuation /growth stocks not delivering – the she’ll be right attitude of recent years has gone as bond yields edge ever higher.
MM is neutral on NFLX US ~$US68
MM is bullish NFLX
MM is cautiously bullish toward NFLX
MM is neutral towards NFLX short-term
MM is neutral towards Netflix (NFLX US)
MM is neutral towards NFLX as it approaches $US400
MM is neutral Netflix (NFLX US)
MM thinks NFLX is in the too hard basket for now
MM is bullish NFLX short-term
MM likes NFLX under $US350
Netflix's relatively simple business model involves only one business, its streaming service. It has the biggest television entertainment subscriber base in both the United States and the collective international market, with more than 300million subscribers globally. Netflix has exposure to nearly the entire global population outside of China. The firm has traditionally avoided a regular slate of live programming or sports content, instead focusing on on-demand access to episodic television, movies, and documentaries. The firm introduced ad-supported subscription plans in 2022, giving the firm exposure to the advertising market in addition to the subscription fees that have historically accounted for nearly all its revenue.
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