15/04/2024 09:13

Chart of the Week

The VIX, or fear gauge as it is often called, remains firmly entrenched below 20, which is extremely low compared to where other geopolitical and macroeconomic events have driven it over the last few decades – the simple message being don’t be complacent.

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11/03/2024 09:03

Chart of the Week

The march higher by stocks has left investors extremely comfortable toward stocks, the question is, are they too comfortable? There are a number of technical indicators which can be used to evaluate whether stocks are getting “too frothy”  from the Fear & Greed index, which is currently sitting in the “Greed” section as opposed to “Extreme Greed” to the VIX or the fund managers positioning, all helpful in our opinion but there is one important factor often missed by traders, i.e. markets can sit in extreme bullish territory for months, or even years.

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29/11/2022 09:04

Volatility

The “Fear Gauge” or VIX remains around its lower levels for 2022 suggesting professional investors aren’t too concerned by the Covid-zero and civil unrest news at least for now.

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29/08/2022 09:22

Chart of the Week

Following a 1000-point plunge by the Dow we would usually expect the VIX to rally far harder than was witnessed on Friday, the move hardly registered on the chart for 2022 which paints a picture that the downside risk to stocks has significantly diminished. Overall we agree with this synopsis believing the current pullback for stocks will present...

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04/07/2022 09:40

Chart of the Week

The VIX has filled this segment a few times this year but it can be a very useful indicator, today it’s telling us that professional investors are comfortable with risk levels around stock levels as it slides lower even over weeks when US stocks struggle, the implication to MM is stocks will rally and the VIX will fall towards the 20 area through July.

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23/06/2022 09:02

US Fear Index / VIX Index

US equities might be hovering near their 6-month low after the S&P500’s 25% decline but the VIX, or fear gauge, has already dropped over 15% suggesting traders believe any further short-term weakness will be limited. This sort of divergence near a low for stocks is often the sign that a bounce is coming as the professional money starts to remove its bearish bets but we caution it’s more of a supporting characteristic as opposed to a lone trigger to start buying.

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08/06/2022 09:31

iPath S&P500 VIX Short-term Futures ETF (VXX US) $US21.67

We have mentioned and invested in the VXX ETF previously, it’s a US traded ETF with a $800mn market cap which rallies when market uncertainty / fear goes up and vice versa, or in other words it performs the best when stocks fall sharply but as we can see today when stocks are calm, even if they are well below previous highs, the VXX falls away. Hence to utilise the VXX successfully we believe a slightly different approach is required:

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03/06/2022 09:27

US VIX (Volatility) Index

Since the market has calmed down following the outbreak of the Coronavirus the VIX has largely rotated between the 20 and 40 levels and we see no reason for this not be ongoing through 2022 / 23 hence we will be looking for opportunities to establish longs for our Global Macro ETF Portfolio  back under the 20 area.

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30/05/2022 09:15

Chart of the Week

One good week certainly doesn’t make a summer and while we’ve hardly seen the sunshine in Sydney this year at least equity markets rallied last week but the VIX is not yet convinced that all is again ok towards risk assets i.e. its trading in the middle of the last 12-months range. If we are correct and stocks are set to recover over the coming months the VIX should drift back towards the 20 region where we will be looking to take a long position in our Global Macro ETF Portfolio.

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28/04/2022 09:37

MM’s favourite 3 defensive stocks – Part 2

Global equities have experienced a sharp downturn over the last week following a worsening COVID picture in China, a month ago everybody was discussing the financial implications of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, today its hardly getting a mention. As we’ve said before markets have been rolling from one headwind to the next through 2022 but they are still fairly resilient albeit scary at times. The classic “Fear Gauge” or VIX...

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