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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 47.27 Fair value 57.75 One-star price 70.57
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (47.27) to the one-star price (70.57).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 72.50 |
| Price - 12 month high | 117.63 |
| Price - 12 month low | 58.71 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.36 |
| Market capitalization | 5,929.43 |
| 12 Month High price date | 11 NOV 2025 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 15 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.36 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.54% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -15.90% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -12.88% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 8.55% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -37.07% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -24.68% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 13.81% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.460 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.460 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.670 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 5.962 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 5.962 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 6.759 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 6.759 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.786 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 1.786 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.868 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.868 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.149 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 2.149 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.780 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 2.295 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.470 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.470 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.470 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.470 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.868 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 49.66 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 43.41 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 12.16 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 40.58 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 38.81 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 33.74 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 10.73 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 120.59 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 41.99 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 6.05 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 0.67 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 0.64% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 1.09% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 1.08% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 153.81 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.49% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.96% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 5.51% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 11.45% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 153.81 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 490.88 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 490.88 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 188.91 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 188.91 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 144.83 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 144.83 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 120.20 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 120.20 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 158.18 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 137.30 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.67 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 24.49% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 24.49% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 28.28% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 28.28% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 29.50% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 29.50% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 19.51% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 20.25% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 23.22% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 31.33% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 16.09% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 17.51% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 17.51% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 22.14% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 22.14% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 9.16% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 11.20% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 35.38% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 59.19% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 36.91% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 30.46% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 21.11% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 46.90% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 20.60% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 30.77% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 54.21% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
HUB +XXXX rallied today following its 1Q27 update, with continued growth in FUA and adviser numbers providing some reassurance after a sharp selloff. This was an important quarter for HUB following softer 2H26 fund flows and, more recently, Netwealth’s (NWL) downgrade to FY27 inflow guidance, which raised the question of whether the slowdown across the sector was cyclical or something more persistent.
We discussed last week’s FY26 report here; Overall, the headline FY26 numbers were strong and, in several areas, ahead of expectations. However, 2H fund flows were lower than the 1H which creates some concern over the velocity of growth. If we believe CEO Andrew Alcock, his assessment is macro volatility and regulatory changes in the budget were to blame. - that it’s just a typical period where consumers were more uncertain, a little but more reticent to invest, but these trends naturally reverse.
HUB -7.25%: fell today despite HUB delivering another year of strong growth, with FUA, revenue, EBITDA and profit all materially higher. However, the recent softer momentum we saw at the quarterly led to a weaker than hoped second half, particularly within the core Platform business.
HUB24 (HUB) –4.18%: fell today following its June-quarter update, as the market focused on a softer quarterly net inflow result despite another year of strong growth across the platform.
We are making two changes to the Growth Portfolio.
Yesterday, platform provider Netwealth (ASX: NWL) rallied +6.73% to $24.43 after securing a platform mandate from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia and guiding to FY27 net inflows of $18-20bn. While management flagged higher technology investment would compress earnings margins next year, the market focused on the strong growth outlook, with the company targeting an EBITDA margin of 47% and ambitions to double FUA to over A$250 billion within four years.
HUB –8.33%: Posted a softer 3Q update, with platform net inflows declining year-on-year as gross inflow momentum slowed.
HUB +14.2%: A cracking result - strong operating leverage, a clear beat vs expectations, and an upgraded FY27 platform target drove the biggest one-day move since 2014.
We believe wealth technology platform HUB24 is the best in class as its growth and increasing FUM suggests but valuation is the key here. We believe AI is more likely to squeeze margins and intensify competition than “kill” HUB24, and its best defence is using AI to deepen adviser workflow lock-in. The recent correction across the software space hit HUB yesterday taking the stock down 10.8% as investors spread the software selling further across the ASX.
MM remains bullish on HUB around the $68 area
MM is cautiously bullish towards HUB
MM is cautiously bullish towards HUB
MM is now bullish HUB ~$100 – great execution & flows
MM still prefers HUB in the platform space
MM is selling HUB in the Active Growth Portfolio, taking profit around $88
MM is neutral towards HUB around $88
MM remains long and bullish HUB
MM remains long & bullish HUB
MM remains long & bullish HUB
Hub24 is a diversified financial services business. The firm's core platform segment engages in the development and provision of custodial and noncustodial administration services to financial advisors, stockbrokers, accountants, and theirclients. The tech solutions segment provides a range of technology and data services, as well as cloud-based software. Hub24 serves individuals, companies, trusts, associations, or self-managed superannuation funds. The firm has around a 10% share of the Australian platform market, compared with the largest five providers with an average market share of 13.2% each.
MM views on Bravura (BVS), Monadelphous (MND), HUB24 (HUB) & Zip Co (Z1P)
Recorded Wednesday 25th August
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