Trading Ideas – Position Updates
We start the week with one open position after we were stopped out of Telix (ASX: TLX) and Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) In last week’s ongoing choppy trade:
Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)
CMM $13.95
20 minute delayed
14 days free access
Join Market Matters and get full access to all our Opinion + Action
Performance
Advanced charting functionality with the ability to amend timeframes, chart type & indicator selection, powered by TradingView.
Share price activity
Displays share price activity. Volume = number of shares traded, Turnover = value of shares traded, VWAP = volume-weighted average price for the day, sourced from Morningstar.
- Last (Price)
- 13.95
- Change
- ▼ -0.55 (-3.79)
- Bid / Ask
- 13.94 - 13.95
- Volume
- 2,574,205
- Turnover
- 36,158,062
- Open
- 14.22
- Day Range
- 13.77 - 14.39
- VWAP
- 14.05
- Prev Close
- 14.50
- Last Trade
- 06/11 4:10pm
Key information
Displays key information on the security, sourced from Morningstar.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Shares Issued
- 457,143,296
- NTA/Share
- 3.14
- Last Dividend
- 0.05
- Dividend Ex Date
- 16 SEP 2026
- Dividend Pay Date
- 9 OCT 2026
Current (AUD) · FY2026
Displays key financial data for the most recent fiscal year, in millions. Note - Per share data is in local currency terms irrespective of reporting currency, and may be different to the stated currency, sourced from Morningstar.
- Revenue
- 711.36
- EBITDA
- 425.97
- Profit
- 282.19
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- 0.63
- Dividend Per Share (DPS)
- 0.05
- Yield %
- 0.72
- Market Cap
- 6,377.15
- Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E)
- 22.13
Estimates (AUD) · FY2027
Displays consensus analyst’s estimates for key measures for the next fiscal year, sourced from Morningstar.
- Revenue
- 854.00
- EBITDA
- 543.00
- Profit
- 360.20
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- 0.79
- Dividend Per Share (DPS)
- 0.10
Quantitative rating
Displays Morningstar’s Quantitative Equity Research Rating for the security: a star rating from 1 (overvalued) to 5 (undervalued) from the share price against a fair value estimated by a statistical model of Morningstar’s analyst ratings, with the model’s economic moat, financial health and fair value uncertainty, sourced from Morningstar.
Overvalued
- Economic Moat
- Narrow
- Financial Health
- Moderate
- Uncertainty
- Very High
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Fair value estimate
Displays Morningstar’s quantitative fair value estimate for the security against the current share price, with the band around it: the five-star price below which the model would rate the stock five stars and the one-star price above which it would rate it one star, sourced from Morningstar.
Five-star price 6.59 Fair value 10.06 One-star price 15.35
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026.
Quantitative valuation
Displays where the share price sits in Morningstar’s quantitative fair value band, from the five-star price (undervalued) to the one-star price (overvalued), with the fair value estimate, the price to fair value ratio, the model’s valuation label and its uncertainty rating, sourced from Morningstar.
Buy
Sell
- Fair Value
- 10.06
- Price / Fair Value
- 1.39
- Valuation
- Overvalued
- Uncertainty
- Very High
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (6.59) to the one-star price (15.35).
Displays useful ratios for the security, NB the pricing date used, sourced from Morningstar.
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
Price, volume and trading statistics for the security, sourced from Morningstar.
| Price - closing or last bid | 13.95 |
| Price - 12 month high | 18.26 |
| Price - 12 month low | 9.41 |
| Pricing date | 5 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 2.15 |
| Market capitalization | 6,377.15 |
| 12 Month High price date | 26 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 23 MAR 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 2.05 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -3.79% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -1.69% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 7.23% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 3.18% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 8.81% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -2.99% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -2.79% |
Earnings, dividends, cash flow and book value per share, sourced from Morningstar.
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.630 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.630 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.643 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 1.589 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 1.589 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.135 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 3.135 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.135 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 3.135 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.105 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 1.105 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.050 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.050 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.100 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.951 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.633 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.633 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.633 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.633 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.379 |
Valuation multiples such as P/E, price to sales, price to book and enterprise value ratios, sourced from Morningstar.
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 22.13 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 21.70 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 8.78 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 4.45 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 36.85 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 13.28 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 4.45 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 43.45 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 17.30 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -416.77 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -485.12 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 0.79% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.72% |
Cash flow, liquidity and leverage measures, sourced from Morningstar.
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 169.50 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 1.21% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 1.42% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 1.51% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 1.99% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 493.70 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
Key income statement lines for the most recent fiscal year, in millions, sourced from Morningstar.
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 711.36 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 711.36 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 425.97 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | — |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 404.79 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 404.79 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 282.19 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 282.19 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 412.86 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.64 |
Profitability margins for the most recent fiscal year, sourced from Morningstar.
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 39.67% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | — |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 55.54% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 56.90% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 45.53% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 35.28% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | — |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 25.23% |
Returns on average assets and equity for the fiscal year, the trailing 12 months and as 5 year averages, and net income and revenue per employee in whole currency, sourced from Morningstar.
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 18.85% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | — |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 24.35% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | — |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | — |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
Growth in revenue, earnings, dividends and book value over recent periods, sourced from Morningstar.
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | — |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | — |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 30.41% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 277.68% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 53.10% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 20.12% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Displays analyst’s forecasts for key measures. The estimates can be expanded to see the spread of the calls. Full lines = reported, and dotted lines are forward estimates. Click a measure to add or remove it from the chart, sourced from Morningstar.
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financial metrics can be plotted on the graph to see trends. Multiple metrics from multiple statements can be plotted against each other, sourced from Morningstar.
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Displays all company announcements released by the company to the exchange, sourced from Morningstar.
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Opinion
Shawn’s Trade Idea: Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) $14.03
We had already written up CMM as our Trade Idea this morning before a bid for gold player Vault Minerals (VAU) from Genesis Minerals (GMD) flashed across our screens. The bid trumps the previous approach from Regis Resources (RRL) putting VAU very much “in play” and the gold sector prime for more M&A activity. Hence, we may struggle to get set this morning.
Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) $11.43
CMM surged +11.7% on Monday, extending its 2025 gains to an impressive +82%. Earlier in the month, we called CMM up to $11, which was clearly too conservative, as the $4.9bn gold miner powered through the psychological level on Monday.
Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) $9.77
CMM closed up +5.3% on Wednesday, finishing the session less than 11% below its high. Again through the volatile year our outlook has remained largely the same since May; we would buy weakness and sell strength until further notice.
Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) $4.60
CMM struggled compared to its peers in 2024, only advancing +2%. We see no reason to alter our stance from late 2023, when we said, “i.e., until further notice, it's not under consideration by MM.”
Capricorn Metals (CMM) $4.59
Gold exploration company Capricorn Metals (CMM) is down -0.2% so far in 2023, a very disappointing performance compared to other gold stocks, i.e. until further notice, it's not under consideration by MM.
Capricorn Metals (CMM) $2.83
CMM is a $1bn Australia-based gold exploration company that operates within two distinct project areas in Western Australia: The Karlawinda Gold Project and The Mt Gibson Gold Project. The stock is only covered by 4 major brokers and they all say hold yet it’s outperformed most of its more discussed peers e.g. CMM is down -16.8% in 2022 compared to Newcrest (NCM) which has tumbled over -30%. The recent presentation by...
Action
Updated
29/09/2026
09:57
CMM
Updated 29/09/2026 09:57
MM is cautiously bullish towards CMM around $15
Updated
06/07/2026
09:27
CMM
Updated 06/07/2026 09:27
Trade Idea: Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) using a limit of $14.40, with stops at $13.10, around 8% risk.
Updated
02/09/2025
09:40
CMM
Updated 02/09/2025 09:40
MM is cautiously bullish towards CMM
Updated
07/08/2025
17:43
CMM
Updated 07/08/2025 17:43
MM is bullish towards CMM ~$9.80
Updated
31/05/2024
09:42
CMM
Updated 31/05/2024 09:42
MM is neutral towards CMM into Christmas
Updated
26/10/2023
09:40
CMM
Updated 26/10/2023 09:40
MM is neutral toward CMM
Updated
20/09/2022
09:21
CMM
Updated 20/09/2022 09:21
MM likes CMM below $3
Business Summary
Capricorn Metals Ltd is engaged in exploration, evaluation, development and production at the Karlawinda Gold Project (KGP); and exploration and evaluation of the Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP). The group has two reportable segments which comprise the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project. The company generates revenue from Karlawinda which is located south-east of Newman in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Relevant suggested news and content from the site
Video
WATCH
Webinar Recording: Are commodities entering a Supercycle?
Recorded Wednesday 24th June @ 12.30pm
Podcast
LISTEN
Thursday 11th September – Dow off -220pts, SPI off -20pts
Daily Podcast Direct from the Desk
Video
WATCH
Buy Hold Sell: The 6 income stocks readers love, plus 2 expert ideas
Recorded 10th June 2026
Podcast
LISTEN
Wednesday 10th September – Dow up +196pts, SPI down -4pts
Daily Podcast Direct from the Desk
