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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 12 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 3.51 Fair value 3.92 One-star price 4.38
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 12 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 12 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (3.51) to the one-star price (4.38).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 3.84 |
| Price - 12 month high | 5.24 |
| Price - 12 month low | 3.58 |
| Pricing date | 12 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 1.43 |
| Market capitalization | 5,581.41 |
| 12 Month High price date | 29 JUL 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 21 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 2.58 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.00% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -22.58% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -19.67% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 2.13% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -24.71% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -21.31% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -1.03% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.179 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.078 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.179 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 0.110 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 0.107 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.141 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 3.600 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.601 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 2.267 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.189 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.147 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.055 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.051 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.400 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.111 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.179 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.078 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.179 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.078 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.051 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 49.25 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 29.99 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 35.76 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.69 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 74.99 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 74.79 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.07 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 60.28 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 22.47 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 1,363.20 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 1,464.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 6.73% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 10.53% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 10.42% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 78.50 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 28.13% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 29.96% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 28.28% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 30.28% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 74.30 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 158.90 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 155.80 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 321.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 161.50 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 189.80 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 43.30 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 259.50 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 112.90 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 189.20 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.13 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 114.41% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 22.59% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | -14.73% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | -64.89% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 27.79% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 119.45% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | -14.41% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 168.88% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 54.09% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 47.69% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 173.53% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 2.28% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 0.46% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 4.34% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 0.73% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 2.98% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 4.59% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 8.95% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 0.71% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 0.88% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 10.83% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -10.06% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | -9.33% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | -43.63% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 29.27% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
IFM began building its stake in Atlas Arteria (then Macquarie Atlas Roads) around 2018, steadily accumulating shares over several years to become the largest shareholder (~34% today). It hasn’t been a sudden “raid”, more a long-term, strategic build that has now culminated in a takeover attempt.
On an 8.5% yield, ALX screens nicely as an income investment, however the underlying business continues to bob along the bottom, which is having the same effect on the share price. Their recent 4Q25 update didn’t move the dial for us. While US assets delivered welcome strength, softer European traffic and lingering funding and tax questions keep the outlook constrained. We don’t own the stock, have reviewed it a number of times, and continue to see fairly neutral underlying trends despite headline yield appeal.
Atlas Arteria (ALX) is an ASX-listed company that owns and operates toll roads globally, with major assets in France, Germany, and the United States. IFM Investors holds over 35% of Atlas Arteria, it’s a global institutional asset manager that manages in excess of $240bn.
Atlas Arteria (ALX) is an ASX-listed company that owns and operates toll roads globally, with major assets in France, Germany, and the United States. IFM* Investors holds over 32% of Atlas Arteria , raising takeover speculation due to its large stake and the company’s attractive almost 8% dividend yield, a typical setup before more direct acquisition discussions - we’ve discussed the M&A prospects for ALX in previous notes.
Atlas Arteria (ALX) isn’t officially “in play” via a takeover, but it does have significant activist interest. IFM Investors has steadily increased its stake—from around 29.9% to approximately 32.6%, using the “creep” provision.
Global toll road operator ALX gained +1.75% on Thursday, a few cents below its one-year high. It's had issues in the last few years, but while interest rates are set to fall, the stock looks well-positioned:
ALX is a global toll road operator managing a portfolio of high-quality international toll road assets, including APRR (Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhône), Dulles Greenway, and Chicago Skyway in the US.
ALX is a global toll road operator managing a portfolio of high-quality toll road assets, including APRR (Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhône), Dulles Greenway, and Chicago Skyway in the US. The stocks endured a tough 2024, falling over 20%, representing a “yield trap” in the process. Losses have significantly outstripped its 40c unfranked dividend. A couple of the headwinds facing ALX should improve moving forward:
The owner of toll roads in France, Germany & the US has been struggling since interest rates started to increase in 2022, though budgetary pressures in France which is creating uncertainty around tax policy is also to blame, sending the shares down by more than -17% year-to-date.
For subscribers not familiar with ALX, it was established following the 2010 split of Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG) into two separate ASX-listed securities. ALX's two main international toll road assets are Autoroutes Paris-Rhin[1]Rhone, APRR (France, 31%) and Chicago Skyway (US, 67%).
MM remains bullish towards ALX around $4.80
MM is now bullish ALX ~$4.80
MM is neutral ALX ~$4.70 – but it is one to watch on tax resolution in France
MM is bullish towards ALX for capital gains and yield
MM is bullish towards ALX for capital gains and yield
MM is cautiously bullish on ALX
MM is bullish ALX around $5.20
MM is bullish ALX below $5
MM is neutral towards ALX
MM is cautiously bullish towards ALX
Atlas Arteria is a global toll-road investor created out of the reorganization of Macquarie Infrastructure Group in 2010. The firm's main asset is a 30.82% stake in APRR. APRR owns concessions to toll more than 2,300 kilometers of motorways in eastern France, most ending by late 2035. The firm also wholly owns the Dulles Greenway and 66.67% of the Chicago Skyway, both in the US.
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