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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 27.72 Fair value 33.95 One-star price 41.59
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (27.72) to the one-star price (41.59).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 41.72 |
| Price - 12 month high | 42.00 |
| Price - 12 month low | 27.78 |
| Pricing date | 4 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 2.64 |
| Market capitalization | 50,965.12 |
| 12 Month High price date | 23 OCT 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 25 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 2.35 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 3.24% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 3.73% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 23.10% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 2.20% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 48.63% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 42.00% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 8.79% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.925 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.925 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.300 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 58.149 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 58.149 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.925 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 3.925 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.324 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 0.324 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.225 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 1.225 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.022 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 4.022 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.970 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 3.682 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.932 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.932 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.932 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.932 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 2.043 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 45.10 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 32.10 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 0.72 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 181.37 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 20.42 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 10.37 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 10.63 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 83.49 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 35.55 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 15,874.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 14,980.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 2.80% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.43% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.33% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 2,513.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 292.06% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 335.58% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 316.42% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 361.53% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 2,513.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 71,539.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 71,539.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 4,530.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 4,530.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 1,578.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 1,578.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 1,138.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 1,138.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1,676.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1,599.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.30 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 1.61% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 1.61% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 3.99% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 3.99% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 2.21% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 2.21% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 3.37% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 2.51% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 2.71% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 3.51% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 1.65% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 3.38% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 3.38% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 24.19% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 24.19% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 3.06% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 20.03% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 5.13% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -10.85% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -3.13% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 5.68% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 3.62% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -11.24% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 29.26% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 0.38% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | -1.18% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
WOW -0.46%: delivered a solid 1Q27 update, with Australian Food the clear standout as price investment helped drive stronger customer traffic and market-share gains. However, trading has moderated since the Ooshies promotion ended, while Big W and New Zealand remain softer parts of the group.
This household name that 48% of Australians say is their primary place to shop delivered a strong FY26 result covered here, but the stock has slipped ~5% since, pretty much in line with the broad market. Moving forward, WOW is facing pressure on several fronts heading into FY27, with softer consumer spending, elevated costs and intensifying competition weighing on earnings.
WOW +3.42%: Posted a solid FY26 result demonstrating that its core Australian supermarkets business is regaining momentum, with FY26 EBIT modestly ahead of expectations and an impressive start to FY27.
Australia’s largest supermarket operator is up +38% so far this year as it recovers strongly from the uncertainty around the price-fixing investigation by the ACCC. The company’s actually had a mixed year operationally at a glance, firstly delivering a strong earnings beat in February only to deliver a mild profit warning in April due to rising costs and increased customer caution.
WOW -7.78%: sold off sharply after the supermarket giant warned Australian Food EBIT growth will fall short of the upper end of its FY26 guidance, implying softer second-half earnings momentum. The downgrade weighed on the sector, with peers Coles and Metcash also trading lower.
Woolworths is one of the most data-rich businesses in Australia, and that's precisely where its AI opportunity begins. With over 20 million active Everyday Rewards members, the company sits on one of the largest consumer datasets in the country and holds purchase history, frequency, basket composition, and price sensitivity insights across millions of households.
WOW arguably breaks the mold here having surged ~13% after delivering a strong 1H result in February Here. The stock hasn’t corrected in line with the broader market sell off, having enjoyed a safety/defensive bid through the Iran War.
WOW +13%: Delivered a strong underlying earnings beat, accelerating sales momentum, and a confident outlook.
Both Woollies and Coles are embroiled in a lengthy and major price fixing investigation by the ACCC, and at this point, both parties have agreed on key facts, the bulk of the legal dispute now centres on interpretation, implying this issue is now in the home stretch. Interestingly, the banks, ignoring COVID anomalies, formed decent lows after the 2017–2019 Banking Royal Commission, and the supermarkets could be the same, as they will eventually be able to focus on their knitting.
Not a classic rate-sensitive stock per se but it caught our attention yesterday. WOW has been a major underperformer in recent years, especially compared to rival Coles. So far in 2025 WOW is down -9.5% while COL is up +20.2%.
MM remains neutral WOW ~$40
MM is neutral towards WOW around $38
MM remains bullish toward WOW
MM is bullish towards WOW around $40
MM is cautiously bullish toward WOW
MM is cautiously bullish towards WOW around $37
MM is bullish towards WOW around $35
MM remains bullish WOW ~$35
MM are bullish on WOW around the $29 area
MM is now bullish towards WOW below $28
Woolworths is Australia's largest retailer. Operations include supermarkets in Australia and New Zealand, and discount department and pet stores. Woolworths also supplies businesses, like restaurants and cafes, following the acquisition ofPFD Food Services. The Australian food division with its supermarkets constitutes the majority of group EBIT, followed by New Zealand supermarkets and PFD, while Big W is a minor contributor.
Pulse Check Webinar: Opportunities in the unloved parts of the market
Recorded Wednesday 27st September
Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish discusses JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Woolworths (WOW) & Gold
Recorded 10am Wed 3rd May
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