17/06/2024 08:48

Commodities

Copper (Cu) has corrected almost 15% over the last few weeks, falling almost as sharply as it appreciated from its late 2023 swing low. It's been a volatile ride for the industrial metal, but we believe it's now due to consolidate in the $US4.50-5.00 region after its “blow off” top above $US5.00, one we called at the time.

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04/06/2024 09:09

Global Markets

US equities were quiet overnight with no standout leads; tech managed to offset a drop in the energy names, and a +0.1% gain by the S&P says it all. As we alluded to on Monday, with no meaningful lead until Friday, it could be a quiet week for the broader market. Manufacturing data came in weaker than expected, which sent bonds higher and yields lower, but it wasn’t enough to excite stocks ahead of Friday.

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03/06/2024 08:58

Commodities

Brent crude edged lower on Friday and last week, although interestingly, the Energy Sector surged +2.5% on Friday night AEST. Oil has been in the same trading range for almost 2 years, and there are no signs this is about to end into Christmas. However, a number of the related ASX oil stocks are starting to find some support, albeit around two-year lows.

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28/05/2024 09:13

The Energy Sector is pulling in different directions

At MM, we adopt a “top-down” meets “bottom-up approach” to investing. In other words, we identify the macro-picture and sectors which should outperform accordingly before boring down into the individual stocks which should benefit the most and pass MMs screening. Importantly, within individual sectors there are many different companies exposed to different drivers, and this is certainly the case in Energy sector where the likes of Thermal Coal, Oil, Gas and Uranium, can all be pulling in different directions at once.

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07/05/2024 09:34

Global Markets

US stocks rallied to fresh 4-week highs overnight as investors took solace from Friday's jobs report and news that ceasefire talks are advancing in the Middle East. Overall, considering the macro headwinds which weighed on stocks through April, the less than  6% pullback demonstrates the market's current internal strength.

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29/04/2024 08:57

Commodities

Crude oil feels like it has been on a volatile journey as Middle East tensions escalate; we only have to visit the petrol pumps to see its advance in 2024, with Premium 98 around $2.50 at many locations around Sydney. However, if we sit back and look at where crudes traded over the last few years, it's been in a sideways congestion pattern, and we’re pretty much in the middle of the range today.

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08/04/2024 08:46

Commodities

Brent crude oil has already rallied 19% in 2024, creating a tailwind for the Energy Sector while at the same time concerning economists that inflation will prove more challenging to vanquish as the influence of higher fuel costs rolls through the global economy. Interestingly, the advance by oil hasn’t been accompanied by many bulls, and with the potential conflict between Israel and Iran increasing, supply concerns are likely to remain elevated for some time. However, the recent supply disruptions are more widespread than just in the Middle East.

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05/04/2024 09:06

Global Markets

US stocks were sold off overnight as investors realised that 2-3 rate cuts were far from guaranteed in 2024. This is a healthy reality check, in our opinion. Selling intensified into the close ahead of the March jobs report due on Friday; investors are positioned for rate cuts, and the risks of them not materialising are increasing weekly as Fed officials continue to reiterate a cautious message. A jump in oil to its highest level since October also increased concerns that inflation will reaccelerate.

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19/03/2024 09:07

Global Markets

US stocks advanced last night as the influential tech sector found some buying after a few weak sessions. Outside of GOOGL/AAPL mentioned earlier, we also saw Meta Platforms (META US), Netflix (NFLX US), and Tesla (TSLA US) advance over 2%, with the volatile car maker putting on over 6%.

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11/03/2024 09:01

Commodities

Oil prices have been rotating around the $US80 area through  2024 in a reasonably tight range. Last week, the market weighed up support from Wednesday's oil report, which showed a smaller-than-expected US inventory increase. This can be interpreted as demand increasing against ongoing concerns that the Chinese economy will continue to struggle. If we are correct and there's a strong possibility that we see at least a test below $US70, the implication is that Chinese data won’t improve anytime soon.

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