Hi Gregory,
We last answered a question around 4DX in August here, at the time the member was asking around shorting but as we said at the time: “traders are betting that a business valued at roughly $2.2bn will fail to live up to the expectations embedded in its share price. With only around $22m of revenue currently forecast for FY27, there is clearly a lot of future success already priced in.”
The stock has fallen heavily since then, rewarding the “shorts” who haven’t really yet taken profit, i.e. the last reported short position was 11.85%, which if anything has been rising in recent weeks.
In the last fortnight alone, the stocks dropped ~35% as corporate governance concerns overshadowed encouraging operational progress. The selloff followed its October AGM, where shareholders delivered a decisive first strike against the remuneration report, with almost 65% voting against it, while proposed multimillion-dollar executive remuneration packages were also rejected.
Importantly, the company simultaneously reported stronger quarterly numbers, with operating revenue up 66%, but only to $2.3m, record scan volumes of almost 120,000 were solid, as is the substantial $248.8m cash balance. However, investors focused on governance concerns rather than the improving operating performance.
Selling accelerated as short interest increased, culminating in a 25.6% single-session plunge and prompting an ASX price query. 4DX attributed the unusual trading activity to increased short selling, although the extent of its contribution remains uncertain.
- Members should always be cognisant that short sellers are professional traders who get it right more often than not.
While the operational momentum remains encouraging, the governance controversy has clearly damaged investor confidence.
We are keeping 4DX firmly in the too hard basket.