There are some obvious pros and cons towards JBH after yesterday’s FY26 report.
Positives
- A quality retailer often regarded as the finest on the ASX. Great history of navigating tough environments
- Forecast to yield 4.7% fully franked over the next 12-months.
- JBH can maintain mid-single-digit revenue and EBIT margin growth over the next 5yrs albeit modestly.
- MM doesn’t believe the RBA will hike rates again in 2026.
Negatives
- JBH is still trading around its average historical valuation despite the challenging economic backdrop. The PE could easily contract.
- JBH is a “very owned” stock on the ASX, leaving room for steep falls as we saw yesterday.
- Sentiment is likely to remain tainted after yesterday’s disappointing report and trading session.
It’s hard not to imagine JBH trading at a discount to its historical valuation until confidence returns to the Australian consumer.
- We wouldn’t be surprised to see JBH test the $60-65 region into Christmas and for that reason, we are selling our position for now, taking an 8-10% loss across the Growth & Income Strategies.