ASX +9.03%: delivered a better-than-expected FY26 result and an encouraging start to FY27, sending shares up as much as 13% and reversing much of the weakness following May’s cost update. The key positive was broad-based revenue strength, particularly across listings and cash trading, while management highlighted its strongest listings pipeline in several years and solid early FY27 trading volumes.
Key results:
- Revenue of $1.25bn, +13%, broadly in line with consensus.
- Underlying profit (NPAT) $536.4m, +5.2%, ahead of A$524m expected.
- Operating expenses $489.6m, +19%, the uptick well flagged in May
- Final dividend 104.7cps, down from 112.1cps.
- FY27 operating expense growth guidance reaffirmed at 13-16%.
- FY27 capex guidance reaffirmed at $180-200m.
The biggest change in tone is on the revenue side. ASX is seeing strong momentum in listings continue into FY27, while macro uncertainty and changing interest-rate expectations are supporting cash equity trading and futures volumes. Costs remain elevated as ASX invests heavily in technology and responds to the ASIC Inquiry, but importantly, the well-flagged FY27 expense guidance wasn’t increased, allowing investors to focus on the improving top-line outlook.
MM’s view: The market had become heavily focused on ASX’s rising cost base following May’s update, whereas today provided evidence that revenue momentum can help absorb some of that investment. There is still plenty to execute on, particularly around the technology reset and ASIC response, but a stronger listings pipeline and healthy trading volumes materially improve the earnings equation.
MM remains neutral toward ASX
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