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Afternoon report

The Match Out: Inflation concerns hit the ASX, Tech the major casualty

The ASX 200 finished firmly lower today as renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil back toward US$100/barrel, reigniting inflation and interest-rate concerns. The Aussie 3-year bond yield was up +10bps to 4.72%, while the 10 year yield pushed through 5%, settling at 5.08%.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

ETF Friday: 3 Global ETFs that provide insight into investor positioning

The week's most-watched ETFs tell a consistent story, the AI and semiconductor trade is cracking at the edges, inverse and bear products are seeing genuine retail interest for the first time in months, and international equity ETFs are absorbing record inflows as the broadening rotation away from US exceptionalism accelerates. However, funds continue to flow into stocks, with fund flows into active primary equity ETFs totalling more than US$17.5 billion for the week ending July 24, 2026.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX fails to hold early gains, stronger jobs data reinforces the prospect of higher rates

The ASX 200 finished a touch higher, though there was a big intra-day reversal following stronger employment data out at 11.30am. The index was up more than 100pts before giving back most of the rally as investors increased the odds of another RBA rate hike. Australia added 76,000 jobs in June, well ahead of the 15,000 expected, while unemployment held at 4.4%. The result pushed the Australian dollar above US70¢ and the 10-year bond yield toward 5%, with markets now pricing a 36% chance of an August rate rise with a full hike priced in by year-end. Next week’s quarterly inflation data has now become even more important.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Afternoon report

The Match Out: Miners spring back to life, supporting the ASX

A reasonable day for the ASX as investors returned to beaten-down miners, with strength across copper, gold and energy stocks more than offsetting weakness in healthcare and technology. The buying was patchy though, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher, implying there is still a fair degree of caution out there.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The Chipmakers put a spring back into Global Equities

US stocks rose on Tuesday, led by semiconductor stocks, as investors looked through the latest developments in the Iran conflict and shifted their focus to a solid start to the US earnings season. Industrial giant 3M jumped more than 7% after delivering a stronger-than-expected second-quarter result, while General Motors gained nearly 5% after beating earnings and revenue forecasts. The reporting season has begun strongly, with almost 88% of the 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating earnings expectations. Attention now turns to results from Alphabet, IBM and Tesla later this week.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX remains anchored to 8800

Another session where the ASX was hit early before buyers stepped in, with the index recovering around 60 points from its two-week low to finish marginally higher. Technology and gold stocks led the rebound as investors bought the dip following recent weakness, while softer oil prices helped ease some concerns around inflation and the outlook for US interest rates. Brent crude eased below US$89/barrel after rising almost 6% over the previous two sessions, while gold recovered toward US$4,050/oz. The improvement in offshore technology sentiment also helped, with US futures turning higher and Asian chip stocks rebounding after the sharp sell-off triggered by concerns around Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Has Lithium bottomed? Why we’re reconsidering our bearish stance.

The lithium trade has lost its mojo in the last few months, but we believe the demand side of the equation remains healthy for lithium as battery energy storage emerges as a 2nd pillar of lithium demand alongside EVs, driven by AI data centres and rising global investment in storage. As we flagged in June, lithium supply is continuing to grow, with analysts divided on when the market will return to deficit—some expect 2026–27, while others don't see it until 2030. At MM, we remain bullish on the long-term structural drivers supporting spodumene and believe prices can ultimately move well above their 2026 highs. However, after the sector's strong gains over the past 12 months, this current pullback is understandable.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Faster rallies, harder falls – has the Market evolved?

Equities have been volatile through 2025–26, unsettled by both the Liberation Day tariff shock and the US-Iran conflict, yet despite the relentless headlines, the ASX 200 has gained less than 1% since the start of 2025. However, on the stock and sector level in particular, volatility has been even more pronounced due to the combination of increased leverage and crowded positioning:

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The ASX 200 finished firmly lower today as renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil back toward US$100/barrel, reigniting inflation and interest-rate concerns. The Aussie 3-year bond yield was up +10bps to 4.72%, while the 10 year yield pushed through 5%, settling at 5.08%.

These are big moves in bonds, pushing bond prices lower. While it was clearly a weak session today, and some sectors were hit hard (Tech), we would have thought that the likes of Real-Estate and Retail would have been sold off more. That implies sellers are exhausted, potentially a bullish read-though for that part of the market.

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