- Markets @ Midday: Listen here at lunchtime or find all Market Matters Podcasts on Spotify.
Another session where the index struggled to break out of its recent range, with the ASX 200 finishing marginally lower despite strong support from energy stocks. The benchmark has now closed little changed in five of the past seven sessions, as investors contend with competing signals from rising oil prices, Middle East tensions and ongoing volatility across technology and resources.
Brent crude pushed above US$90/barrel following renewed US-Iran hostilities and reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy acted as the market’s key support, while defensive areas were also well supported.
- ASX 200: -5.45pts / -0.06% to 8,791.30
- AUD/USD: 0.6988 / +0.06%
- Best sectors: Energy +1.80%, Consumer Staples +0.43%, Communications +0.39%
- Worst sectors: Information Technology -1.55%, Utilities -0.63%, Healthcare -0.49%
- 4DMedical (4DX) +7.19% to $3.43 rebounded strongly following Friday’s 15.6% decline, with investors returning to the medical-imaging company after digesting proposed US legislation supporting a pilot program using its lung-imaging technology.
- Deep Yellow (DYL) +6.10% to $1.31 rallied after awarding $34m of civil and concrete construction contracts for its flagship Tumas uranium project in Namibia. A final investment decision remains targeted for the December quarter.
- Yancoal Australia (YAL) +5.97% to $5.68 and New Hope Corporation (NHC) +2.87% to $5.38 benefited from renewed buying across energy and coal stocks as geopolitical tensions pushed global energy prices higher.
- South32 (S32) +4.62% to $4.08 gained after exceeding FY26 production guidance across its key operations. Sierra Gorda copper, Cannington and manganese all outperformed during the final quarter, while quarterly sales volumes increased 15%.
- GrainCorp (GNC) +4.18% to $5.23 and PanToro Gold (PNR) +4.18% to $2.00 were also among the session’s strongest performers.
- Viva Energy Group (VEA) +3.85% to $2.43, AMP Ltd (AMP) +3.47% to $2.09 and Ventia Services Group (VNT) +3.19% to $6.15 all finished firmly higher.
- AMP Ltd (AMP) +3.47% to $2.09 continued its recent surge after last week forecasting first-half underlying net profit of $170m–$180m, taking its gains over the past week to more than 20%.
- Energy stocks provided the bulk of the index support. Woodside Energy (WDS) +1.44% to $30.90, Santos (STO) +2.08% to $7.84 and Karoon Energy (KAR) +2.00% to $1.53 advanced as Brent crude moved above US$90/barrel.
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE) +1.84% to $25.45, Telstra Group (TLS) +0.60% to $5.07 and Coles Group (COL) +0.73% to $23.38 provided additional support.
- The major banks were mixed. Westpac (WBC) +0.27% to $36.66 and ANZ Group (ANZ) +0.19% to $36.13 edged higher, while Commonwealth Bank (CBA) -0.34% to $171.20 and National Australia Bank (NAB) -0.40% to $39.69 declined.
- BHP Group (BHP) flat at $57.54 steadied following two sessions of weakness, while Rio Tinto (RIO) -1.86% to $157.95 and Fortescue (FMG) -0.53% to $18.77 remained under pressure.
- Technology was the weakest sector as concerns around the AI trade continued to weigh. WiseTech Global (WTC) -3.55% to $33.71, Xero (XRO) -2.08% to $68.27 and Megaport (MP1) -1.10% to $18.03 all declined.
- The latest source of volatility was China’s Moonshot and its Kimi K3 model, which has raised questions about whether cheaper and more efficient AI models could reduce future demand for computing infrastructure. The counterargument is that lower costs may accelerate adoption and ultimately increase total AI usage, similar to the market’s experience following DeepSeek.
- Liontown Resources (LTR) -4.14% to $1.28, Mineral Resources (MIN) -3.86% to $54.59 and PLS Group (PLS) -3.23% to $4.19 remained under pressure as lithium equities continued to track the recent decline in spodumene prices.
- Zip Co (ZIP) -3.69% to $2.87 extended Friday’s weakness following its decision to exit New Zealand and concentrate on its Australian and US operations, despite Citi mildly increasing earnings forecasts.
- Web Travel Group (WEB) -3.69% to $2.35, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) -3.01% to $17.09 and Flight Centre (FLT) -2.87% to $11.83 were also among the session’s weaker consumer and travel names.
- James Hardie Industries (JHX) -2.69% to $36.59 gave back some of last week’s gains, while ResMed (RMD) -1.95% to $27.74 weighed on healthcare.
- Brent crude: +2.7% to approximately US$90.51/bbl, its highest level in more than a month, following renewed attacks and disruption concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold: traded around US$4,000/oz, with higher oil prices reviving concerns that inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter policy stance.
- Asian markets: South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 4% as investors continued to reduce exposure to AI-linked technology stocks, while Hong Kong +1.8%, Japan +1.2% traded higher, China was off -0.2%
- S&P 500 E-mini futures: -1 point / -0.01%
- Dow E-mini futures: -67 points / -0.13%
- US companies we own reporting this week; Blackstone (BX US), Chubb (CB US) & Freeport McMoRan (FCX US).
