Commodity Clock

1. Greater financial participation: More investor activity has made commodity prices more volatile, with markets adjusting faster to new information and changing expectations.
2. Tighter supply response: A decade of underinvestment has reduced supply flexibility, making commodity prices more sensitive to geopolitical, weather and policy shocks.
3. Structural demand shifts: The energy transition, industrial reshoring and geopolitical fragmentation have created multiple long-term demand drivers, reducing reliance on any single market narrative.

As we said, MM believes traditional commodity Supercycle, where most commodities rally together over an extended period, is giving way to a more fragmented market. Instead, each commodity is increasingly driven by its own supply, demand and geopolitical dynamics, making a “one commodity, one strategy” approach more appropriate.

Hence, it’s hard to say where the Supercycle is without paying being specific about a commodity, but in general terms, it does indeed feel more like 5 o’clock.