Brent Crude Oil ($US/barrel)

Oil prices tumbled Friday after Iranian officials said they would allow commercial traffic to resume in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting equity markets in Europe and New York, where major indices hit new records. Citing the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would lift its blockade on shipping through the key Gulf energy trade route. The good news lasted just a few hours but we believe its where diplomacy will ultimately take us – but it was never going to be easy sailing considering the parties involved.

• We can see Brent Crude trading 6 – 8% lower in the coming months as a ceasefire evolves in the coming weeks BUT it is now trading up ~7% this morning.