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Question asked 28/03/2026

Gold

I would like your opinion on the gold price. My experience, as a small child during and post WWII (pre supermarket days), money had no value. Prices were doubling and tripling daily. I recall seeing people in the food market, exchanging food for a small piece of a gold necklace. My recollection is, that traditionally during uncertain times, the price of gold has rocketed. It is not happenings now. Why? Best regards, John

Answer

Hi John,

We feel a lot of investors have been caught out by golds ~25% correction since the War broke out between US-Israel and Iran. The pullback which MM flagged, and positioned for, has been down to a three main factors, although we stress, we didn’t foresee the war and/or speed of the move:

Investors were heavily and complacently long gold after its three-fold appreciation from early 2024 which left room for the sharp “warning-style” move in January, and the current second leg lower this month – we mentioned the crowded position highlighted in the BofA Fund Managers Report a number of times in 2026.
The sharp rise in the oil price has led to inflation fears weighing on bonds pushing up yields creating a high yielding safe alternative to precious metals.
The $US has enjoyed a safety bid has always weighed on gold which is inversely correlated to the Greenback.

However, we are bullish gold medium term and have shown the monthly chart below to illustrate that if we ignore the news (noise) gold is simply consolidating a huge advance from sub $US2,000.

chart

Gold Spot ($US/oz)

LAST UPDATED 27/03/2026 12:02

Latest Reports

Weekend report 28/03/2026

Weekend Q&A: Markets still fear the Iranian conflict has no end in sight

The ASX200 finished a choppy week up +1%, a solid result given the index gapped down ~2% on Monday. Volatility was elevated, with three sessions posting 100-point intraday swings—moves that would typically define a month. Geopolitics remain front of mind: the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities on Friday, prompting retaliation across the Persian Gulf. The escalation followed President Trump's delay of a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain on edge, with Brent Crude above $US113 the key focus, the prolonged conflict is increasing the risk of more meaningful damage to the global economy.

Afternoon report 27/03/2026

The Match Out: ASX snaps 3 week losing streak, though nerves remain

The ASX 200 snapped a three-week losing streak, though there was little conviction around the local market today, with the index slipping mildly lower by the close – although it did recover ~50 points from the morning low as US Futures traded up.