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Private credit causing “wobbles”

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Private credit causing “wobbles”

Hi This comment was in your Tuesday morning report and there have been similar sentiments in various places over the last week or so, but I haven't seen anything specific about what is going on with private credit that is causing concern, apart from a company in the UK going bust. Can you please enlighten me about what is causing all the angst about private credit at the moment as it seems to have come out of nowhere. Cheers, Carl

Answer

Hi Carl,

Private credit has generated plenty of headlines across financial markets, though it has recently taken a back seat to unfolding events in the Middle East. We took a “deep dive” into the space on Wednesday Here.

In terms of coming out of nowhere: last October Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase made the often quoted “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” following the high-profile credit blow ups at Tricolor and First Brand Groups – JPM had to write off $170mn with Tricolor.

Since then, the line has become shorthand for concerns about hidden risks in the $3T+ private credit market with the recent UK blow up at Market Financial Solutions (MFS) seeing it trotted out again this week.

The broader concerns are stemming more from US than local lenders. In the US, a lot of software companies have been financed through private credit providers and AI has thrown a spanner in their ability to predict/price the future cash flows of these businesses. In Australia, private credit is more centered around property, and we think this is less of a risk, but it is still a fairly opaque market.

  • We believe Private Credit does have a place in an Income Portfolio BUT higher returns come with higher risk, something investors often forget.
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