In the US, sales on Black Friday rose from a year earlier, according to a key data provider a sign that consumers are continuing to spend despite persistent economic concerns. Retail sales, excluding autos, increased 4.1% on the day after Thanksgiving, surpassing last year’s 3.4% growth. The figures, which are not adjusted for inflation, draw from both online and in-person purchases to give a broad view of economic activity. The holiday season is a key barometer for consumer demand, with executives, economists and investors closely watching households’ spending habits. In-store sales rose 1.7%, above last year’s pace while online sales rose 10.4% as people continue to shop on their phones and keyboard.
The moves in stocks tracked firming expectations for Fed easing’s, with money markets pricing in a greater than 80% chance of a 0.25% cut next week and leaning toward three more by the end of 2026. Around 10-days ago, traders were projecting three cuts in total. However, as we see with retail sales the US economy is firm in places and while there are plenty of pieces to the jigsaw which determines interest rates we believe current forecasts for Fed cuts area as good as it gets, especially with a dearth of economic reads due to the US governments shutdown.
