US shorter dated bonds rallied on Friday as investors sought refuge in the safety of bonds, driving down yields in the process. Plus, anything that can weigh on economic activity, such as renewed tariff uncertainty, is likely to lead to deeper rate cuts by the Fed – futures markets ended last week looking for four, and probably five rate cuts by Jerome Powell et al. over the coming year.
- We believe the US 2s can test 3% in 2026, providing an ongoing tailwind for stocks.