Over recent weeks, the US 30s have been knocking on the door of 5% as fears of rising inflation weigh on long-dated bonds (weak bonds = higher yields). While we don’t favour a punch above 5%, at least in the near future, it has shown its tendency to weigh on stock market sentiment whenever a break higher feels possible and hence needs to be monitored carefully. It is a very different beast from the 2s in the current economic environment.
- We can see the US 30’s continuing to rotate around the 4.5% level into 2026.
MM is cautiously bullish towards US 30-year Bonds (yields lower), short-term
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