The US 10s drifted lower last week but considering the dovish data and conflict in the Middle East, similar to equities, it was a relatively lacklustre move. While we expect lower rates through 2025/6, some rate cuts by the Fed and a softening in the employment picture are likely needed to see a move back under 4%.
- We see no reason to fight the 3-5% trading range until further notice, although we see them moving lower over time.
MM is cautiously bullish on US bonds (yields lower), medium/long term
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