ASX200 doing the limbo

Hi Simon,

One for Shawn!

Initially we tweaked outlook from bullish to neutral on the day the ASX200 popped above 8600 which was on point but we thought the market would find decent support around 8100, however, on Friday afternoon while typing this reply the index had already flirted with 7963. We have switched back to neutral from cautiously bullish with a test of 7700-7800 feeling a strong possibility. A couple of reasons have led us here:

• The ASX200 corrected over 800-points in 2023 and this year we have the risks of a Trump Trade War and now rising bond yields as Germany look to beef up defence as the US looks to extradite itself from the Russia-Ukraine War – simple extrapolation of from 8600 takes us to 7800.
• This week has shown the market that Trump is prepared to tolerate a big market sell-off before pivoting on policies, i.e. there’s no “Trump Put” as many hoped/suspected.
• Over the last week MM has looked at a number of stocks, focusing on our optimum buy zones, and in virtually all cases it was a few % lower, which coincides with the index.

As you say the wild card is China and the Resources Sector which is gaining strength, but we are leaning toward the above view.

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ASX200 Index

LAST UPDATED 07/03/2025 13:16

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ASX200 Index

LAST UPDATED 07/03/2025 13:16