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CAT and yet another Gold Question

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CAT and yet another Gold Question

Hello James and the team, I have been with MM for some years now and still it is my best source of relevant and plain speaking analysis of stocks and the markets. My first question relates to CAT. I purchased it in the very low $2 range and have seen it have a stellar run over the last months. Many research and stock pundits still keep calling it a strong buy, but with such a run I am wondering what you view is for any further appreciation over the medium term. The paper profit is very appealing, but I dont want to give away what could be one of those "10-bagger" investors dream of. Secondly , with respect to the various gold mining companies. I read a lot of reports and results where the realized gold price from sales are disclosed, many of which are no where near the current spot rate. Obviously there are many forward contracts in play etc, My question is , over what period of time do you think a majority of Aust Miners will start to actually sell gold closer to the current spot price. With prices well over $4000 AUD surely the Aussie miners will soon start to reap some decent earnings. Thanks Michael

Answer

Hi Michael,

Catapult (CAT): MM owns this sports analytics company in our Emerging Companies Portfolio, showing a more than 160% profit on our position. We are not likely to sell out of our position because we think the future looks great, but to us, trimming it after such a good run makes sense. We have a 4% target weight which in practical terms, has increased given the stocks outperformance. We do not believe it is a ‘strong buy’ at current levels and now is more a time to re-calibrate our holding back to the targeted weight.

ASX Gold miners: Gold mining companies hedge exposure to help mitigate risk and improve their ability to forecast earnings, and essentially, balance the books. Obviously, when prices are extremely strong, this works against them and vice versa. It’s the price paid for a higher degree of certainty.

Using Northern Star Resources (NST) as an example, they have a policy of hedging 8-35% of production, with about 20% hedged currently at levels as low as $A2720 but an overall average of A$3200 out to about 2029 from memory. This creates more consistency in returns for shareholders i.e. less volatility than say Gold Road Resources (GOR) and Westgold Resources (WGX) who have adopted a hedge-free gold sales policy, or Evolution (EVN) who have around ~5% of production hedged, but only out to FY26.

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Catapult Group International (CAT)
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