Portfolio Positioning: The US political circus is underway

A weak session for the US banks, not something we’ve seen on the local bourse this year, dragged the Dow lower overnight but not in any meaningful manner. The American banking sector has been consolidating its strong advance from its 2023 low around current levels for the last six months, albeit in a volatile manner. Following the comments from JPM, a re-test of the August lows wouldn’t surprise; around 8% lower. This is not a great read-through for the ASX banks, which are trading at multi-year highs.

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Weekend report 16/08/2025 09:48

Weekend Q&A: ASX ends the week at a fresh high as results season heats up

A strong end to the week saw the ASX200 advance 1.5%, breaking to new all-time highs above 8,900. It was only a little over four months ago that the ASX was trading below 7,200, clouded by an aggressive tariff regime implemented by the president of the world’s largest economy. While the tariff situation remains a work in progress, with a deal yet to be signed between China and the US, it has quickly faded from headlines. Deals with other countries suggest the same will happen between the two superpowers, and our view at the time—that huge tariffs simply didn’t work as policy and therefore had to be a strategy—appears to be playing out.

Afternoon report 15/08/2025 17:42

The Match Out: ASX adds 1.5% for the week, closes at new all-time highs

Another strong session to end a positive week for stocks, with the ASX defying a flat session overseas to chalk up a new all-time closing high, above 8900 for the first time.

Morning report 15/08/2025 08:40

ETF Friday: A deep dive into our Core ETF Portfolio, and how it can be used

Two of the most widely held stocks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Telstra (TLS), both confirmed this week that crowded/momentum trades can be problematic. Meeting earnings expectations when the market is positioned for an upside surprise is simply not good enough.

Afternoon report 14/08/2025 18:12

The Match Out: WBC quarterly fuels Bank rally as ASX hits fresh intra-day high

The ASX hit new intra day highs today, driven by strong gains in Financials and Utilities after upbeat earnings results from Westpac and Origin. Bank stocks followed the WBC result up with CBA the weakest link for a second straight session. Employment data this morning eased concerns of a weakening job market and took some fuel off the fire for a rate cut at next month’s RBA meeting.

Morning report 14/08/2025 09:40

What Matters Today: Three “High-flyers” that may be vulnerable ahead of their earnings report

The ASX200 suffered at the hands of the banks, particularly CBA, on Wednesday, ending the session down 0.6%; as we often say, the market can't go up without the banks, and in this case, especially CBA, when it tumbles 5.4%.

Afternoon report 13/08/2025 17:47

The Match Out: CBA sells off, drags ASX down with it

Equity markets across Asia today surged on news US-China trade tariffs paused for an additional 90 days through to November – it was a different story on the local market.

Morning report 13/08/2025 09:31

Portfolio Positioning: Michele Bullock’s 0.25% cut helps push the ASX200 towards 9000

The ASX200 rallied another +0.4% on Tuesday, embracing the 0.25% RBA rate cut and accompanying dovish commentary. Credit markets are pricing in another 2-3 cuts over the coming 12-months; we think they're being too cautious.

Afternoon report 12/08/2025 17:14

The Match Out: RBA rate cut pushes stocks to another new high

Another new all-time high for the ASX today, buoyed by the expectation that today’s rate cut will be followed by several more; markets now expecting another 3-4 cuts in the next 12-months.

Morning report 12/08/2025 11:48

What Matters Today: Is yesterday’s jump a “Get out of Jail Free card” in lithium stocks?

The ASX200 closed up +0.4% on Monday, driven to new highs by a resources sector enjoying a new lease of life; it's already surged +6.7% so far in August. The lithium stocks led the charge following the news that CATL shut down one of the world's largest mines, but on the index level, it was BHP that added the most points, around 30% of the day's 38-point gain. Outside of the gold stocks, the Materials Sector was hot, from lithium to copper, and iron ore.

Afternoon report 11/08/2025 16:50

The Match Out: ASX books another all-time high (by 1 point), Lithium stocks jump on China mine shutdown

An interesting session to kick off the week with Lithium stocks roaring as a major mine in China suspended production after failing to extend a mining permit, putting a rocket under the sector which has significant short interest, the implication being more upside looks highly likely.