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AFR’s comments re Metcash

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AFR’s comments re Metcash

The following comments were in the AFR this week. The rest is behind a paywall but you can get the gist of what they’re saying. “Shareholders move against Metcash as hardware spin-out hopes fade. All is not well at Metcash, the retailer and wholesaler behind brands like IGA and The Bottle-O. Putting aside the lacklustre share price performance, there are also deep concerns around the prospect of Metcash’s Independent Hardware Group, the real standout and home to well-known hardware brands like Mitre10, Home Hardware and Total Tools.” I hadn’t heard that there were plans to spin-out the hardware division but do you think it’s likely and would it make sense for MTS to do it? Do you think there’s any substance to the AFR’s comments and seeing that Metcash is still on your hitlist, am I right to assume that MM is still bullish on MTS?

Answer

Hi Carl,

MTS is still on our Hitlist but at this stage its probably at the back of the queue, its more attractive today as an income as opposed to a growth stock as can be seen by the returns its generated for our Active Income Portfolio.

The core of the next few paragraphs of the AFR article were:

In November, Metcash and its chief executive, Doug Jones, moved to take full control of Total Tools, tipping $101.5 million to mop up 15 per cent of the professional hardware chain it didn’t already own. While Bunnings does not directly operate in the professional hardware space – reserved for tradespeople – it has been growing in that sector through its Tool Kit Depot franchise. It’s since announced plans to launch up to 75 Tool Kit Depot stores nationally, typically co-located with Bunnings. That has kicked off a serious price war, crunching margins.

  • June numbers showed Metcash’s earnings fell 3.8 per cent to $210.9 million in the 12 months ending April 30 which hasn’t helped the share price.

Hardware is the most cyclical MTS division and the construction backdrop remains challenging, with the market weak on all levels, from new housing to renovations. We wouldn’t buy MTS looking for a spin-off just as we don’t buy stocks in anticipation of a takeover, they are cream on the cake. However, the risk/reward is attractive ~$3.50.

Importantly, the food business is going very well, which is a very important component for earnings.

  • At this stage MM likes MTS more for Income more than growth.
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Metcash Ltd (MTS)
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