Portfolio Positioning: Golds reacting more to central bankers than bonds!

Overnight, the influential former Federal Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he’s expecting three rate cuts in 2024 as inflation moves towards the Feds target even while the economy remains resilient, i.e. the “Goldilocks” scenario for stocks. Bullard’s outlook echoed the Fed’s messaging as opposed to the increasing market expectations that two cuts have become more likely than three, e.g. Treasury yields made new highs for the year on Monday night. Mr Bullard is indirectly quoting the old adage of “don’t fight the Fed”. However, it wasn’t the ongoing commentary from the central banker that caught our attention but rather the market’s reaction following the relatively Dovish interview—gold surged over $US30 to another all-time high while bond yields hardly moved. This has been the story of 2024, which has seen gold surge around $US300/oz while bonds have drifted lower (yields higher).

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