Hi Trevor, a reminder that our comments here are of a general nature only, and will never take into consideration any one investors personal circumstances.
Obviously forecasting currency markets is a very challenging endeavour before we even consider how individual stocks will perform. The scenarios are straightforward but by definition we will need to make some assumptions around the risks towards the $A:
1 – if we simply buy Apple Inc (AAPL US) and / or Microsoft (MSFT US) in the market and the $A keeps falling, our returns will improve in local currency terms but of course the reverse also holds true.
2 – if we buy an ETF such as the NDQ, VTS or SPY they are all effectively traded in $US as the ASX traded NDQ is not currency hedged i.e. no different to simply buying US traded underlying shares.
3 – Alternatively we can buy the locally traded BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (HNDQ) which is currency hedged which by definition removes the trials and tribulation of currencies. If we held the view that the AUD was to rally along with technology stocks and we are right, a hedged product will capture the full return minus the cost of hedging.
At MM we tend to invest in ASX ETF’s if all else is equal to KISS as you say. Whether one buys the NDQ or HNDQ will come down to a underlying view towards the $A.