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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 46.79 Fair value 75.90 One-star price 123.11
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (46.79) to the one-star price (123.11).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): USD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 119.96 |
| Price - 12 month high | 135.28 |
| Price - 12 month low | 81.37 |
| Pricing date | 10 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 7.41 |
| Market capitalization | 123,113.22 |
| 12 Month High price date | 25 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 21 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 7.02 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -4.15% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 2.30% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 2.96% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 11.62% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 35.92% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 17.77% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 1.80% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 6.390 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 8.620 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 6.890 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 20.459 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 24.750 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 31.099 |
| Book value per share - most recent quarter | 33.976 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 28.819 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent quarter | 31.611 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 7.022 |
| Cash per share - most recent quarter | 8.407 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 9.516 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 12.925 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.010 |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 1.030 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 15.253 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 6.410 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 8.640 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 6.410 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 8.640 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 10.112 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 13.74 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 12.16 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 4.79 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 3.77 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 11.72 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 9.17 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 3.49 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 20.49 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 11.52 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -3,243.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -2,652.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 2.03% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 0.82% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.87% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 7,509.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 16.07% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | 15.81% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 16.42% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent quarter | 15.20% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent quarter | 15.58% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 10,870.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 12.07% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 22,669.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 26,606.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 13,878.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 16,397.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 11,342.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 14,038.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 7,085.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 9,240.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 10,902.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 7,634.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 9.74 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 31.62% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 35.48% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 48.63% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 55.61% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 52.76% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 50.03% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 23.21% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 13.20% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 21.50% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 40.86% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 5.27% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 12.85% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 16.54% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 22.34% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 27.29% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 3.78% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 6.35% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 409,542.86 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 1,295,371.43 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 14.54% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 12.73% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -23.11% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 7.48% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 23.91% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 1.58% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 18.44% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 19.37% |
Financial forecast (USD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | ||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
Announcements are available for ASX-listed companies only.
US heavyweight gold miner Newmont surged 9.9% in US trade, suggesting an open around $170 for its ASX-listed shares this morning. While not all gold stocks will move as one, we still see 15-20% upside for NEM after the likely strong open this morning, suggesting most precious metal stocks should run strongly into Christmas.
Newmont is the largest listed gold producer in the world and for us it’s acting as an excellent roadmap for the sector, and miners in general. While consolidation of recent strong gains looks likely we’re still looking for the US$135bn giant to punch to new highs in the coming months.
NEM +0.72%: reported a very strong 1Q result, with earnings, cash flow and margins all beating expectations as the gold price rally continues to flow through the business.
Newmont (NEM) remains inexpensive on a historical basis, with a +$150 price target easily justifiable with gold trading above $US4,000. A strong result in July pushed the stock to a three-year high, supported by a whopping quarterly free cash flow of US$1.7 billion.
We recently took profit on our second foray this year into Evolution (EVN). We flagged the move over recent months, and when gold broke above $US3500, we took our money again with EVN having been a very profitable hunting ground for MM, as has the gold sector in general for most investors.
US gold goliath NEM bought our own Newcrest (NCM) back in late 2023, and the miner has struggled in recent years, operationally, matching the misgivings of NCM. Since the acquisition, the company ADRs are now traded on the ASX, but we see better alternatives available with local names.
NEM is the largest gold miner in the world and the 3rd largest mining company in the US, with a market cap of $US47bn. This is an excellent example of how operational execution, or lack thereof trumps the trend of the underlying commodity. We have covered NEM a few times over recent months, each time arriving at the same conclusion: We like the gold sector but have no interest in NEM.
In a far worse session than on the ASX yesterday, Newmont’s US listed shares tumbled ~15% overnight following cost blowouts. The shares had their worst session since the GFC on their subsequent earnings miss and likely swath of downgrades that followed this disappointing 3rd quarter report which came in well short of expectations.
As subscribers know, at MM, we are bullish gold, but as we always do, we question whether we have the optimum exposure for this view – so far in 2024, Evolution (EVN) has slipped -6.1% while Newmont (NEM) has gained +7.9%. Over the last 12-months there has been some major news for both companies:
MM is bullish towards NEM around $155
MM is bullish NEM ~$155
MM is bullish towards NEM into 2026
MM is bullish towards NEM into 2026
MM is cautiously bullish on NEM
MM is bullish towards NEM through 2025
MM is bullish on NEM medium term
MM prefers NST over NEM
MM is neutral towards NEM
MM is bullish towards NEM
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. It bought Goldcorp in 2019, combined its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Barrick later that year, and also purchased competitor Newcrest in November 2023. Its portfolio includes 11mines and interests in two joint ventures in the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. The company is expected to sell roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold in 2026 from its continuing mines after selling six higher-cost, smallermines following the Newcrest acquisition. Newmont also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts. It had about two decades of gold reserves, along with significant byproduct reserves at the end of December 2025.
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