The Match Out: ASX edges higher, Financials lead the line, Someone get Albo a MM subscription!

The market opened higher this morning however petered out into the afternoon as the resource stocks gave back early gains, particularly in Iron Ore & Lithium. The IT names again dominated the naughty corner as Australian 10 year bond yields topped 3% for the first time since July 2015, however the move was far from aggressive. As discussed in Marco Monday (click here) this morning, we think the respective elastic bands are being tested at their extremes, some reversion is now our preferred scenario.

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Afternoon report 10/12/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX drifts after RBA’s hawkish hold

The ASX drifted through the session with little conviction as investors balanced a hawkish hold RBA against anticipation for tomorrow morning’s US Federal Reserve decision. With Michele Bullock signalling that rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future yesterday, the market was unsettled and interest rate sensitive stocks continued to weigh, though a huge effort from gold stocks and broader materials provided much needed support for the index to close only just lower.

Morning report 10/12/2025 09:49

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA follows the script with a hawkish twist

The ASX 200 dropped 0.5% on Tuesday after the RBA held rates steady as expected, but the tone of the statement shifted the decision into a decidedly “hawkish hold”. Michele Bullock's comments pushed bond yields to their highest level since late 2024 and the $A back to its 2025 highs, leaving stocks swimming against the tide ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday.

Afternoon report 09/12/2025 17:09

The Match Out: ASX lower as RBA takes the prospect of cuts off the table

The ASX lost ground into the close on Tuesday after RBA governor Michele Bullock signaled that rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future, with upside risks to inflation re-emerging. The main board, which had hovered modestly lower for most of the session, accelerated its decline after the post-meeting press conference as a more hawkish tone from the RBA supported the Australian dollar, while tech stocks led the local losses.

Morning report 09/12/2025 09:31

What Matters Today: With NSR receiving a binding offer, is it still too early to jump back into real estate?

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday before trading in another narrow range, eventually finishing the session down just -0.1%. Outside of another impressive session for the lithium stocks, it was a fairly non-committal session with investors and traders alike happy to sit on the sidelines ahead of the RBA today and Fed on Thursday - credit markets are still expecting no change locally and a 0.25% cut in the US, but it’s the accompanying rhetoric that will determine where stocks finish the week.

Afternoon report 08/12/2025 17:20

The Match Out: ASX slips ahead of RBA Call, National Storage (NSR) gets the nod for takeover

The ASX finished lower as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s RBA policy decision, with sentiment soft despite a modestly positive lead from Wall Street and little in the way of corporate news flow to drive individual names. Lithium names were a bright spot following last week’s sector upgrade however this was offset by gold stocks which retreated as bullion eased over the weekend.

Morning report 08/12/2025 09:48

Macro Monday: The rising cost of debt could be AI’s big hurdle in 2026

Wall Street is lending incredible sums of money as the AI revolution explodes, even as it wrestles with how to shield itself from a potential bubble of its own making. As we’ve shown before, the cost of protecting Oracle Corp. debt against default has risen to the highest since the GFC. The sheer fact that risk levels are comparable to the tumultuous times back in 2007/8 shows how much money is at stake. Mega offerings from tech behemoths, including Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet, have already helped push global bond issuance well over $US6 trillion in 2025.

Weekend report 06/12/2025 10:27

Weekend Q&A: The week of Central Banks is upon us

The ASX 200 recovered late in the week after a sluggish start, finishing up +0.2% over the five days. It was a notably quiet week overall, with the index trading within a narrow 0.8% range. However, on the sector level, it was another very polarised week with the materials +3% and energy +2.4% sectors extending recent strength while the rate-sensitive tech, healthcare and consumer discretionary names continued to struggle with the futures market now pricing in one, perhaps two rate hikes by the RBA in 2026, what a difference a few weeks make!

Afternoon report 05/12/2025 16:20

The Match Out: ASX flat as UBS pushes Lithium upgrades

A mildly positive session for the ASX today, and enough to secure a second straight weekly gain as investors continue to recalibrate expectations for interest rates. The RBA steps up to the plate on Tuesday, no change expected, though commentary is important, while the US Federal Reserve is tipped to cut rates on Thursday.

Morning report 05/12/2025 09:36

ETF Friday: Navigating the resources sector with ETFs – 2

The ASX 200 enjoyed a firm session on Thursday, closing up +0.3% on its intra-day high, an uncommon trait of late. It was another session where the miners supported the local market but this time the banks finally played a supporting role.

Afternoon report 04/12/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX higher as Copper hits new milestone

The ASX edged higher on Thursday, with record-breaking copper prices doing the heavy lifting as interest-rate-sensitive sectors sagged under rising bond yields. Bond markets have now priced out any chance of an RBA rate cut this cycle, and traders are assigning a 15% probability of a rate hike as early as February. Strong household spending data for October, the biggest jump in two years added weight to the RBA’s concern that inflation remains too sticky.