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When inflation rises it takes interest rates along for the ride which flows down to multiple contraction / a drop in valuations i.e. people are prepared to pay less for a company’s potential growth / yield because they can suddenly get an improving return on their risk free funds at the bank i.e. a major tailwind for stocks has become a headwind
The US literally pumped money / stimulus into their economy after the GFC but the amount pales into insignificance compared to their extreme efforts post-COVID, never in history has the global economy experienced such phenomenal economic stimulus effectively providing “free money” which has fuelled massive M&A and buyback activity in equities
MM believes that company buybacks are close to a point of inflection which should remove an enormous tailwind for stock indices i.e. one of the largest net buyers of stocks may retreat
A200
MM remains mildly bullish Australian equities looking for 4-6% further upside i.e. not a big call but we do anticipate reducing our risk if such a move unfolds
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COPX US
MM is looking for around 10% upside in copper in the coming months but we must remain mindful of how quickly some moves unfolded in 2020/21, in both directions!
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MM believes the rise in bond yields will peak early this year
QQQ US
MM is becoming more cautious this year than last
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Sentiment suggests the market has more short term upside

Latest Reports

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Federal Budget 2026 – What it means for Portfolio’s

The ASX slipped for a fourth straight session today as a sharp selloff in CBA following a softer quarterly weighed heavily on the broader market, with the market also digesting the implications of last night’s Federal Budget and its proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX softer ahead of the Budget, BHP hits record, tech sold off

The ASX was weaker today, with the market unable to follow a stronger offshore lead as investors turned more cautious ahead of tonight’s Federal Budget. Lots of leaks in recent days and suffice to say, this will be one of the more important budgets in recent memory with the ALP fiddling with capital gains tax.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Copper the New Oil — And Australia’s Lucky Break?

The ASX 200 delivered another disappointing performance on Monday falling 0.5%, failing to embrace another record breaking session by US equities on Friday night. The day was dominated by another painful downgrade by CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) which saw the biotech hit 16%, its largest ever 1-day fall, contributing over 70% of the days decline - such was its dramatic fall that it overtook talk of tonight’s budget on many trading desks.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Earnings, not social media posts, ultimately drive stocks

Outside of the post-COVID rebound, corporate America has just delivered one of its strongest earnings seasons in more than a decade. Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations, with the Magnificent Seven posting profit growth well in excess of 50%, providing the engine room for the broader rally.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The ASX continues to tread water while US tech stocks surge to new highs

The ASX200 experienced a choppy week, ultimately closing up +0.2% following Fridays triple-digit loss as tensions between the US and Iran took a turn for the worse. The local index was threatening to break out toward fresh highs on Thursday before yesterday’s -1.5% sell-off, leaving the market stuck in the 8600-9000 trading range where it’s now looked comfortable for more than a month. The rate-sensitive stocks continue to weigh on the ASX with retail and real estate continuing to drag the local index back despite the best efforts of the miners which saw the materials sector gain +4.3% through the week, with more set to come on Monday.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs that could attract the next wave of buying as investors look for value

The ASX200 delivered a second consecutive strong day, extending the weeks recovery from Tuesdays low to more than 3%. The gains were again spearheaded by the miners, on the back of stronger metal prices, with BHP Group (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) on their own contributing 50% of the index’s move. The advance was more broad based than on Wednesday with over 70% of the main board closing higher.

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