CWN has had the kitchen sink thrown at it over recent years from huge regulatory issues, a royal commission to of course COVID but as we saw with the banks this is exactly when lows are often formed. MM believes its unlikely that the likes of Star Entertainment (SGR) or Blackstone will re-engage until the mist clears towards its casino licences but unless Victoria or NSW decide to walk away from their much needed revenue out of Crown we do ultimately believe these casino venues will be open and firing in 2022 – the latest lockdowns have cost both states dearly and this may actually work in Crown’s favour.
It’s a simple equation – with property assets of around $8 per share and takeover interest clearly around $13-$14 the risk reward is attractive if the licencing outcome was a mere coinflip and we believe its better than that.
MM likes the risk / reward towards CWN under $10
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