Viewpoint: Bullish
HUB -2.38%: HUB also produced a good set of numbers on a weak day today and despite the shares trading lower, their quarterly update was a cracker with the investment platform recording its third consecutive quarter of record net flows of $3.9bn which is +259% YoY & +104% QoQ). James Bisinella had this to say… HUB has put on another record of net flows in 4Q21 of $3.9bn, including a $1.4bn large transition from ClearView.
BHP -2.49%: Not a great day to release a very good operational update however that was the case with BHP. Todays FY21 production numbers were strong coming in at the higher end of guidance ranges. The standout in terms of YoY performance was the iron ore unit with lower YoY numbers elsewhere reflecting 1. Copper – covid issues, 2. Coal – weather and 3.
The current flock to safety has sent bonds higher and their respective yields lower which is closely following the MM roadmap. Again due to our core view that stocks can easily retreat another ~6% we are only considering a 5% foray into the TBF ETF for our Global Macro ETF Portfolio:
I’ve deliberately thrown a new stock for 2021 into todays report to spice things up a bit, Swiss based Glencore was the 4th largest copper producer in 2020 with interests from Chile, The Congo to Mount Isa. I actually had a job interview at Glencore as a trader many years ago but (thankfully now) didn’t get the gig. We like this global mining giant into current weakness very much in-line with our outlook towards reflation over the next 12-18 months, as opposed to 2-3 weeks.
MM moved underweight banks in recent months and the pullback we have been waiting for is unfolding nicely, our favourite 3 to add some diversity across the Growth portfolio are likely to require the underlying indices to reach our target areas but that feels increasingly likely at this stage:
Oil was smacked over 7% last night which sent the US Energy Sector down -3.6%, we’ve been stalking Santos (STO) for many weeks with an ideal entry below $6.50 which may easily be achievable this morning.
Copper fell almost 3% last night which could easily see OZL test our initial $20 target, at this stage we are considering buying 3% for our Flagship Growth Portfolio leaving room to average if further weakness unfolds in-line with our index thoughts.
Global equities have experienced a tough start to the week but on balance we believe they have further to unfold on the downside with the S&P500 still only 3% below its all-time high, hardly scary stuff with the VIX still noticeably well below its May highs even with the Dow tumbling 725-points last night.
Overnight saw a distinct “risk off” session for US stocks with the S&P500 falling -1.6%, we haven’t changed our stance of being keen buyers of weakness but we should also remain mindful that our optimum target area for this largely followed global index is still another ~6% lower.
Potentially an out of date note before this report hits your inbox but yesterday saw ALU experience some wild swings on rumours that American software company Autodesk had withdrawn its $38.50 bid. There was also talk that they had ran an increased offer of $40 past the board only to get the cold shoulder, the company announcement from ALU was very thin on details implying they weren’t 100% sure what comes next, our take:
