The ASX200 ended the shortened week up +1.8% and remains on track to post fresh all-time highs in the coming few weeks. Strength came from the most influential market sectors, including the banks/financials, energy, healthcare and resources names. On days when we saw profit-taking in the banks, where Commonwealth Bank (CBA) again posted all-time highs last week, the resources tended to surprise on the upside, i.e. any selling we did see appeared to be more rotational in nature as opposed to exiting the market.
We had a significant number of questions come in over the break, and we couldn't include them all in the usual Weekend Q&A on Saturday. Here's a special Monday follow up report, with additional Q&A.
Most years in January, we remind subscribers that indices often form important pivot points in the first few months of the year on the stock, sector and index level, e.g. the ASX200 formed an important top in 2020,2022 and 2023 and a low in 2019 and 2021.
The ASX200 surged higher last week after the Fed officially pivoted on rates, giving some Christmas cheer to most share market investors around the world. The ASX200 ended the week up +3.4%, led by gains across the rate-sensitive names as bond yields dived lower, e.g. Real Estate +5.3%, Tech +4.8%, and Healthcare +4.2%. However, gains were broad-based with all 11 major sectors closing higher, with only the Utilities failing to advance more than +1.75%.
The ASX200 pushed higher last week, ultimately closing up +1.7%, posting fresh 11-week highs into the close on Friday. The last 2-days caught our attention as the local market reversed early weakness as belief in a 2023 Christmas rally gathers momentum – for the statisticians amongst you, if we’ve already seen the low for the month at 7041 and December delivers the average monthly range of 2023, by extrapolation, the index is destined to test the 7400-7450 resistance area.
The ASX200 waved goodbye to November's stellar +4.5% advance rolling into December on Friday, the market looks poised for a seasonal Christmas Rally, aided by a strong start on Monday. On the stock level, Friday saw some low-key reversion to the panic-like end-of-month surge higher on Thursday, considering the rally throughout November, and on Thursday, the local indexes' Friday afternoon recovery was a testament to the market's underlying strength.
The ASX200 experienced a quiet week with the US Thanksgiving holiday giving investors and traders alike a reason to take a breather after November's strong performance – the index rotated in a tight 0.9% range before finally slipping less than 10-points. Under the hood, we witnessed some reversion to the month's recent moves as the euphoria around falling bond yields abated, Tech & Real Estate were the weakest two sectors, while the influential Energy, Financials and Materials Sectors were the only three sectors which managed to edge higher.
Last week was a volatile but overall positive time for the ASX200, with the local index finally closing up +1.05% after registering a fresh 7-week high on Wednesday following a market-friendly US CPI (inflation) print on Tuesday night – it hasn't been one-way traffic, but the drop by the local 3-year yields from 4.24% to 4.1% provided a sufficient tailwind to push stocks higher. The market reacting positively to falling bond yields is nothing new, but what did catch our attention last week was some performance catch-up/reversion on the stock level as we approach 2024, perhaps a combination of bond yield optimism and book squaring:
Last week was one to forget for MM with a few of our positions in our Active Growth Portfolio having a really tough time for a variety of reasons, e.g. Xero (XRO) -11.1%, Paladin Energy (PDN) -7%, and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) -3.8%. It felt like the only place that fared worse than us was the ESG names which continued their standout underperformance, e.g. Liontown Resources (LTR) -9.4%, IGO Ltd (IGO) -7.4% and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) -6.4% with all three of these making fresh 6-month lows, or worse – crowded trades often sound logical but a stock/market needs fresh buyers to push higher.
It wasn’t quite the running of the bulls at Pamplona, but after the selling we've witnessed through September and October, it was a very welcome “Relief Rally”, or perhaps more. The ASX200 ended last week up +3.4% from Monday's intra-day low, with the index rallying around 200-points over the last 3-days with strong buying in the rate-sensitive Real Estate +6.7%, Tech +4.5%, and Healthcare +4.3% sectors, laying the foundations for a stellar week while only the Utilities and energy stocks reined in the markets gains.
We had a significant number of questions come in over the break, and we couldn't include them all in the usual Weekend Q&A on Saturday. Here's a special Monday follow up report, with additional Q&A.
Most years in January, we remind subscribers that indices often form important pivot points in the first few months of the year on the stock, sector and index level, e.g. the ASX200 formed an important top in 2020,2022 and 2023 and a low in 2019 and 2021.
The ASX200 surged higher last week after the Fed officially pivoted on rates, giving some Christmas cheer to most share market investors around the world. The ASX200 ended the week up +3.4%, led by gains across the rate-sensitive names as bond yields dived lower, e.g. Real Estate +5.3%, Tech +4.8%, and Healthcare +4.2%. However, gains were broad-based with all 11 major sectors closing higher, with only the Utilities failing to advance more than +1.75%.
The ASX200 pushed higher last week, ultimately closing up +1.7%, posting fresh 11-week highs into the close on Friday. The last 2-days caught our attention as the local market reversed early weakness as belief in a 2023 Christmas rally gathers momentum – for the statisticians amongst you, if we’ve already seen the low for the month at 7041 and December delivers the average monthly range of 2023, by extrapolation, the index is destined to test the 7400-7450 resistance area.
The ASX200 waved goodbye to November's stellar +4.5% advance rolling into December on Friday, the market looks poised for a seasonal Christmas Rally, aided by a strong start on Monday. On the stock level, Friday saw some low-key reversion to the panic-like end-of-month surge higher on Thursday, considering the rally throughout November, and on Thursday, the local indexes' Friday afternoon recovery was a testament to the market's underlying strength.
The ASX200 experienced a quiet week with the US Thanksgiving holiday giving investors and traders alike a reason to take a breather after November's strong performance – the index rotated in a tight 0.9% range before finally slipping less than 10-points. Under the hood, we witnessed some reversion to the month's recent moves as the euphoria around falling bond yields abated, Tech & Real Estate were the weakest two sectors, while the influential Energy, Financials and Materials Sectors were the only three sectors which managed to edge higher.
Last week was a volatile but overall positive time for the ASX200, with the local index finally closing up +1.05% after registering a fresh 7-week high on Wednesday following a market-friendly US CPI (inflation) print on Tuesday night – it hasn't been one-way traffic, but the drop by the local 3-year yields from 4.24% to 4.1% provided a sufficient tailwind to push stocks higher. The market reacting positively to falling bond yields is nothing new, but what did catch our attention last week was some performance catch-up/reversion on the stock level as we approach 2024, perhaps a combination of bond yield optimism and book squaring:
Last week was one to forget for MM with a few of our positions in our Active Growth Portfolio having a really tough time for a variety of reasons, e.g. Xero (XRO) -11.1%, Paladin Energy (PDN) -7%, and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) -3.8%. It felt like the only place that fared worse than us was the ESG names which continued their standout underperformance, e.g. Liontown Resources (LTR) -9.4%, IGO Ltd (IGO) -7.4% and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) -6.4% with all three of these making fresh 6-month lows, or worse – crowded trades often sound logical but a stock/market needs fresh buyers to push higher.
It wasn’t quite the running of the bulls at Pamplona, but after the selling we've witnessed through September and October, it was a very welcome “Relief Rally”, or perhaps more. The ASX200 ended last week up +3.4% from Monday's intra-day low, with the index rallying around 200-points over the last 3-days with strong buying in the rate-sensitive Real Estate +6.7%, Tech +4.5%, and Healthcare +4.3% sectors, laying the foundations for a stellar week while only the Utilities and energy stocks reined in the markets gains.
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