The ASX200 experienced an eventful week which included surprise rate hikes by both the RBA and Bank of Canada yet the local market ended the week down just -0.3% however it was a far more interesting week under the hood of the market as the aggressive moves by central banks plus accompanying hawkish rhetoric changed investors sentiment on the stock and sector level:
The ASX200 ended the week down just -0.1% as we waved goodbye to May which ultimately lived up to its bearish seasonal reputation falling -3%. We’re starting to wonder about the magnitude of news that will be required to awaken equities from their current slumber, there were 2 major events last week and yet the index closed basically unchanged
Investors remain very concerned that a recession is approaching fast which hasn’t been helped by the ongoing political bickering around the US debt ceiling between Biden and McCarthy. We still believe the balance of probability is skewed heavily to a compromise which will send the US S&P500 to fresh 2023 highs but the ASX200 looks far less likely to challenge its equivalent levels as both the influential banks and resources weigh on the index, our index simply isn’t weighted as heavily towards the tech sector as the U
The ASX200 eked out another small gain last week, finally closing up +0.26% as the sector rotation from value into growth continued unabated even as local 3-year bond yields rallied to their highest close in 10 weeks – we question if the likes of tech can continue to ignore the move in bonds for much longer, especially if it gathers momentum. However, as the EOFY approaches a firm $US and strong earnings from some major tech names have maintained the trend which began in late 2022, last week was a simple case of the “song remains the same” but gains, in particular, became far more stock specific:
The ASX200 eked out a small +0.5% gain last week in one of the quietest weeks we’ve seen since COVID shook risks assets to their very foundations, the local market rotated in an extremely tight 1% range with recession fears weighing on the resources while tech and healthcare stocks led the gains courtesy of stability returning to the bond markets as analysts start to call for central banks to pivot on rates. A classic playbook, when bond yields fall/stabilise growth stocks usually benefit often to the detriment of value names i.e. fund managers are positioning themselves for a recession:
The ASX200 fell -1.2% last week following a poor performance from the banks both at home and in the US, the ASX200 Financial Sector closed out the week down -3.4% while the Utilities and Real Estate Sectors were the only 2 market pockets to close in positive territory. The local banks suffered as the US regional Banks plunged another -20% before bouncing on Friday while local sentiment soured following Thursday’s disappointing result from National Australia Bank (NAB), better earnings from ANZ Bank (ANZ) and Macquarie Group (MQG) on Friday weren’t enough to repair the damage
The ASX200 slipped -0.3% over the shortened Anzac week where yet again the main action was to be found beneath the market’s hood, a bad 4-days for the iron ore miners dominated proceedings combined with further worries around regional banks and another failed takeover as TPG walked away from its $1.8bn bid for funerals business InvoCare (IVC) was enough to send the index slightly lower. On the bright side, we saw further M&A activity with Kirin bidding for Blackmores (BKL), a couple of positive surprises on the earnings front catching overconfident shorts plus a resurgence across many building & property nam
The ASX200 slipped -0.4% last week after testing the psychological 7400 level on Monday, it was the turn of the energy & mining stocks to weigh on the local index while the banks did their best to maintain the market’s upward trajectory e.g. ANZ & NAB both rallied over 1% while Woodside (WDS), BHP Group (BHP), and RIO Tinto (RIO) all fell by more than - 3%. On the stock level, it was a week that saw some standout reversion to a number of the earlier trends through 2023 with Whitehaven Coal (WHC) surging +7.4% whereas Domain Holdings (DHG) fell -7.1%.
The ASX200 closed up another +2% last week taking the index within 3.6% of its all-time high, nervousness might be at an extremely high level but local stocks are defying the disbelievers and threatening to break out on the upside. For the doubters, there’s always something to worry about just around the corner but as we keep pointing out when the bears are at their most vocal stocks rarely fall:
The ASX200 has closed up ~2% for the quarter even as we saw the RBA hike interest rates twice and the global banking sector teetering on the edge of a full-blown crisis. Equities continue to defy the numerous bears although it’s been far from one-way traffic so far in 2023 with the Energy & Financial Sectors falling while the interest rate sensitive names soared le by the Consumer Discretionary Index which soared +9.9%. An eclectic bunch of stocks caught our attention in both the winner’s and losers’ enclosure with M&A and reporting season exerting a huge influence on many stocks over the 3 months:
The ASX200 ended the week down just -0.1% as we waved goodbye to May which ultimately lived up to its bearish seasonal reputation falling -3%. We’re starting to wonder about the magnitude of news that will be required to awaken equities from their current slumber, there were 2 major events last week and yet the index closed basically unchanged
Investors remain very concerned that a recession is approaching fast which hasn’t been helped by the ongoing political bickering around the US debt ceiling between Biden and McCarthy. We still believe the balance of probability is skewed heavily to a compromise which will send the US S&P500 to fresh 2023 highs but the ASX200 looks far less likely to challenge its equivalent levels as both the influential banks and resources weigh on the index, our index simply isn’t weighted as heavily towards the tech sector as the U
The ASX200 eked out another small gain last week, finally closing up +0.26% as the sector rotation from value into growth continued unabated even as local 3-year bond yields rallied to their highest close in 10 weeks – we question if the likes of tech can continue to ignore the move in bonds for much longer, especially if it gathers momentum. However, as the EOFY approaches a firm $US and strong earnings from some major tech names have maintained the trend which began in late 2022, last week was a simple case of the “song remains the same” but gains, in particular, became far more stock specific:
The ASX200 eked out a small +0.5% gain last week in one of the quietest weeks we’ve seen since COVID shook risks assets to their very foundations, the local market rotated in an extremely tight 1% range with recession fears weighing on the resources while tech and healthcare stocks led the gains courtesy of stability returning to the bond markets as analysts start to call for central banks to pivot on rates. A classic playbook, when bond yields fall/stabilise growth stocks usually benefit often to the detriment of value names i.e. fund managers are positioning themselves for a recession:
The ASX200 fell -1.2% last week following a poor performance from the banks both at home and in the US, the ASX200 Financial Sector closed out the week down -3.4% while the Utilities and Real Estate Sectors were the only 2 market pockets to close in positive territory. The local banks suffered as the US regional Banks plunged another -20% before bouncing on Friday while local sentiment soured following Thursday’s disappointing result from National Australia Bank (NAB), better earnings from ANZ Bank (ANZ) and Macquarie Group (MQG) on Friday weren’t enough to repair the damage
The ASX200 slipped -0.3% over the shortened Anzac week where yet again the main action was to be found beneath the market’s hood, a bad 4-days for the iron ore miners dominated proceedings combined with further worries around regional banks and another failed takeover as TPG walked away from its $1.8bn bid for funerals business InvoCare (IVC) was enough to send the index slightly lower. On the bright side, we saw further M&A activity with Kirin bidding for Blackmores (BKL), a couple of positive surprises on the earnings front catching overconfident shorts plus a resurgence across many building & property nam
The ASX200 slipped -0.4% last week after testing the psychological 7400 level on Monday, it was the turn of the energy & mining stocks to weigh on the local index while the banks did their best to maintain the market’s upward trajectory e.g. ANZ & NAB both rallied over 1% while Woodside (WDS), BHP Group (BHP), and RIO Tinto (RIO) all fell by more than - 3%. On the stock level, it was a week that saw some standout reversion to a number of the earlier trends through 2023 with Whitehaven Coal (WHC) surging +7.4% whereas Domain Holdings (DHG) fell -7.1%.
The ASX200 closed up another +2% last week taking the index within 3.6% of its all-time high, nervousness might be at an extremely high level but local stocks are defying the disbelievers and threatening to break out on the upside. For the doubters, there’s always something to worry about just around the corner but as we keep pointing out when the bears are at their most vocal stocks rarely fall:
The ASX200 has closed up ~2% for the quarter even as we saw the RBA hike interest rates twice and the global banking sector teetering on the edge of a full-blown crisis. Equities continue to defy the numerous bears although it’s been far from one-way traffic so far in 2023 with the Energy & Financial Sectors falling while the interest rate sensitive names soared le by the Consumer Discretionary Index which soared +9.9%. An eclectic bunch of stocks caught our attention in both the winner’s and losers’ enclosure with M&A and reporting season exerting a huge influence on many stocks over the 3 months:
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