The ASX200 can’t make its mind what to do, should it follow the Dow, NASDAQ or Europe and so far the conclusions been “if in doubt do nowt”. Coming into today the markets up just 3-points for the week, for all its bluster and major stock / sector rotation the underlying index continues to go nowhere fast. Yesterday summed up most of 2021 as we opened marginally higher which attracted sellers, this drove the market down over 100-points from its high before the weakness attracted buyers to push us all the way back to unchanged.
MM added to our frustrating position in Newcrest Mining (NCM) yesterday, hopefully we aren’t throwing good money after bad! The gold price has corrected almost 20% since the euphoric period last August and as we’ve seen this year when markets become too optimistic watch out and vice-versa.
As MM keeps saying “selling strength and buying weakness will add value in 2021” and gold certainly ticks the box of the later. I wont go into the fundamental reasons why we are bullish gold around the $US1700 area as its covered very succinctly by Rocky in the video contained and we share those views, but the technical picture is also supportive with silver remaining on track to make fresh multi-year highs above $US30/oz.
The ASX200 continues to struggle whenever its steps foot above the 6800 level with yesterday another perfect example, the index was up strongly at midday only to surrender half of its gains even as US futures rallied strongly. This time we saw some reversion from value back to growth, for example BHP Group (BHP) reversed lower while Afterpay (APT) bounced very strongly from its intraday lows.
The ASX200 put in pretty disappointing performance yesterday only rallying +0.4% after receiving a plethora of apparent bullish news, almost 60% of the index managed to close up on the day but as we’ve seen so often this year sellers emerge into strength – the index has now been rotating round the psychological 6800 area for 5-weeks with both sellers and buyers fading any moves. Sentiment was tarnished by some aggressive selling in the BNPL space with both major players reversing early gains to close well in the red, ZIP (Z1P) was the worst falling -6.7% while Afterpay (APT) retreated -3.6%; the sectors currently reinforcing our view for 2021 that selling strength will add value in the months ahead.
After battling to close in positive territory last week the ASX200 is walking into a cavalcade of bullish news this morning, an open well in excess of 6800 feels on the cards as all the stars appear to be aligning for the bulls:
Last week almost felt like an ordeal for the ASX200 but it actually still managed to close up 1% courtesy of a rock solid Banking Sector which more than compensated for the aggressive sell-off in the Healthcare & IT stocks e.g. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +6% and ANZ Bank (ANZ) +10%. I’m sure everybody now comprehends that bond yields are dictating financial markets at present with last night another classic example, US 10-year bond yields reversed lower after making fresh 2021 highs which sent stocks soaring higher
Famed portfolio manager Hamish Douglass has moved Magellan’s portfolio to 50% defensive although like ourselves he remains basically fully committed to equities. He believes many investors are ignoring the risks of a bumpy post COVID economic recovery citing virus mutations as one of many risks that could derail the stimulus / free money led recovery.
The choppy price action of the last month continued unabated yesterday with the ASX200 bouncing 55-points to close back above 6800, basically at the same price it started February. Over the last month of trading the local markets remained within 2% of this area, its felt like there’s been an imaginary elastic band snapping stocks back whenever they attempted to move either up, or down, to a new level of equilibrium.
The ASX200 continues to dance the volatility jig after falling almost 100-points from its intraday high on Tuesday following comments out of China which appeared to spook the market, although I would note that selling of strength has been a common characteristic through 2021 to-date. The news flow between East and West central banks / regulators was almost diametrically opposed yesterday but with Chinas comments the most unexpected addition to the mix it had the most impact, probably a combination of surprise factor and global equities had been roaring higher over the last 24-hours:
In just a couple of back to back sessions the ASX200 has endorsed our call for elevated volatility in 2021 – on Friday we fell 161-poinrts before recovering 116-points yesterday, not ideal price action for the faint hearted investor! As we’ve maintained for months MM believes stocks have entered a period where they will take “3 steps forward and two back”, the style of choppy rotation which regularly punishes investors who follow natural human emotion and sell weakness & / or buy strength. With more than 80% of the local market closing in positive territory on Monday our roadmap for both March and 2021 remains on course:
MM added to our frustrating position in Newcrest Mining (NCM) yesterday, hopefully we aren’t throwing good money after bad! The gold price has corrected almost 20% since the euphoric period last August and as we’ve seen this year when markets become too optimistic watch out and vice-versa.
As MM keeps saying “selling strength and buying weakness will add value in 2021” and gold certainly ticks the box of the later. I wont go into the fundamental reasons why we are bullish gold around the $US1700 area as its covered very succinctly by Rocky in the video contained and we share those views, but the technical picture is also supportive with silver remaining on track to make fresh multi-year highs above $US30/oz.
The ASX200 continues to struggle whenever its steps foot above the 6800 level with yesterday another perfect example, the index was up strongly at midday only to surrender half of its gains even as US futures rallied strongly. This time we saw some reversion from value back to growth, for example BHP Group (BHP) reversed lower while Afterpay (APT) bounced very strongly from its intraday lows.
The ASX200 put in pretty disappointing performance yesterday only rallying +0.4% after receiving a plethora of apparent bullish news, almost 60% of the index managed to close up on the day but as we’ve seen so often this year sellers emerge into strength – the index has now been rotating round the psychological 6800 area for 5-weeks with both sellers and buyers fading any moves. Sentiment was tarnished by some aggressive selling in the BNPL space with both major players reversing early gains to close well in the red, ZIP (Z1P) was the worst falling -6.7% while Afterpay (APT) retreated -3.6%; the sectors currently reinforcing our view for 2021 that selling strength will add value in the months ahead.
After battling to close in positive territory last week the ASX200 is walking into a cavalcade of bullish news this morning, an open well in excess of 6800 feels on the cards as all the stars appear to be aligning for the bulls:
Last week almost felt like an ordeal for the ASX200 but it actually still managed to close up 1% courtesy of a rock solid Banking Sector which more than compensated for the aggressive sell-off in the Healthcare & IT stocks e.g. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +6% and ANZ Bank (ANZ) +10%. I’m sure everybody now comprehends that bond yields are dictating financial markets at present with last night another classic example, US 10-year bond yields reversed lower after making fresh 2021 highs which sent stocks soaring higher
Famed portfolio manager Hamish Douglass has moved Magellan’s portfolio to 50% defensive although like ourselves he remains basically fully committed to equities. He believes many investors are ignoring the risks of a bumpy post COVID economic recovery citing virus mutations as one of many risks that could derail the stimulus / free money led recovery.
The choppy price action of the last month continued unabated yesterday with the ASX200 bouncing 55-points to close back above 6800, basically at the same price it started February. Over the last month of trading the local markets remained within 2% of this area, its felt like there’s been an imaginary elastic band snapping stocks back whenever they attempted to move either up, or down, to a new level of equilibrium.
The ASX200 continues to dance the volatility jig after falling almost 100-points from its intraday high on Tuesday following comments out of China which appeared to spook the market, although I would note that selling of strength has been a common characteristic through 2021 to-date. The news flow between East and West central banks / regulators was almost diametrically opposed yesterday but with Chinas comments the most unexpected addition to the mix it had the most impact, probably a combination of surprise factor and global equities had been roaring higher over the last 24-hours:
In just a couple of back to back sessions the ASX200 has endorsed our call for elevated volatility in 2021 – on Friday we fell 161-poinrts before recovering 116-points yesterday, not ideal price action for the faint hearted investor! As we’ve maintained for months MM believes stocks have entered a period where they will take “3 steps forward and two back”, the style of choppy rotation which regularly punishes investors who follow natural human emotion and sell weakness & / or buy strength. With more than 80% of the local market closing in positive territory on Monday our roadmap for both March and 2021 remains on course:
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