HomeReportsWeekend Q&A: August heralds recession fears
Overseas equities fell away on Friday night as recession fears increased, with the EURO STOXX 50 -2.7% and German DAX -2.3% leading the declines. In the US, it was another brutal night, with the S&P500 plunging 1.8% and the Dow over 600 points after the jobs report sent investors running for cover. Some tech megacap names saw heavy losses during the day after Amazon’s 2nd quarter results sparked investor concerns about Big Tech’s blowout levels of artificial intelligence-related (AI) capital spending. The e-commerce giant slid 8.8% after missing analyst estimates and issuing a disappointing forecast.
The market opened down ~20pts before U.S futures kicked in mid-morning spurring a small rally to ~7935 before sitting in a 10-point trading range for the remainder of the day. A negative reaction to the blockbuster acquisition by James Hardie (JHX) highlighted a continued aversion to the U.S early on, though our market was quickly buoyed by a flight to financials, with banks enjoying a good start to the week.
Most pundits are blaming Trump 2.0 and the accompanying uncertainty that tariffs entail for the reason that many global indices have corrected from their recent highs; for example, the ASX 200 has fallen 10.2%, and the US S&P 500 has fallen 10.5%.
It was a better week for local stocks, with the ASX 200 bouncing 1.8% on broad-based gains, which saw all 11 major sectors advance, led by an unusual combination of consumer staples and energy stocks. Following a tough four weeks, the Australian share market notched its best weekly positive performance of 2025, but with new tariffs due on April 2nd, it could still become the calm before the storm. The lack of fresh tariff news and encouraging developments on the interest rate front was enough to “stop the rot” in equity land, but how the market deals with the next wave of bad news will tell us the real story.
Fridays have generally been weak on the ASX with traders showing little appetite to hold stocks over the weekend given Trump’s propensity to make headlines, however, this week was characterized by fewer headlines from the Whitehouse and stocks bounced back as a result, with the main board up 1.8% over the 5 sessions with all sectors finishing in the green.
The ASX 200 enjoyed its best day in six weeks, surging 1.2% on Thursday, clearing 7,900 on broad-based buying, which saw over 80% of the main board close higher. Positive economic news from both the US and domestic markets, particularly regarding interest rates, spurred the rally in equities.
A very solid bounce back on the ASX today with ~85% of the main board finishing higher. Risk was back on with technology + market linked stocks leading the way, though resources lagged.
The ASX 200 retreated 0.4% on Wednesday due to broad-based selling, with over 75% of the main board closing lower. The rate-sensitive utilities and real estate sectors underperformed, both falling by more than 1.3%, while the healthcare sector's 0.5% gain was the main glimmer of hope for the bulls.
The worst of the session was seen early with the market attracting some bargain hunters as the day progressed despite a mixed bag in term of corporate updates. WiseTech (WTC) and Mineral Resources (MIN) in focus for the wrong reasons, while Myer (MYR) was also volatile after they released 1H25 results.
Tuesday saw local shares pare early gains to finish only slightly higher as US futures slipped away on escalating conflict in the Middle East. The ASX200 closed up just 6 points, surrendering almost 90% of its early morning gain, although over 60% of the main board managed to advance.
A solid start to trade this morning with the main board rallying back above 7900, however, sellers kicked into gear from just before midday with the index finishing ~60pts below the morning highs.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
Verication email sent.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
!
Invalid One Time Password
Please check you entered the correct info, please also note there is a 10minute time limit on the One Time Passcode
To reset your password, enter your email address
A link to create a new password will be sent to the email address you have registered to your account.
