The ASX 200 experienced a choppy session on Tuesday before eventually closing up +0.3%, taking the index into positive territory for the week. The miners contributed more than 50% of the day's advance, but it was a relatively quiet affair considering the impressive gains in Europe and the US overnight. The tug of war at the pointy end of the market remains fairly evenly balanced, with investors only prepared to buy either the banks or miners on a day-to-day basis, appearing to use the other to fund the purchases.
The ASX 200 finished modestly higher today, but the headline gain masks another fairly mixed session. The index jumped ~50 points at the open following a strong lead from Wall Street and renewed enthusiasm around the AI trade and a drop in Oil prices, before handing back some of those gains as the day progressed.
The ASX 200 recovered well from an early 0.6% dip to close flat on Monday, with 45% of the main board managing to advance. Gains by the banks cancelled out losses by the miners, leaving the index evenly balanced into the close. Australian tech stocks, which are primarily software names, continued to underperform, falling 1.6% and extending their decline in 2026 to more than 25%. To put the disappointing performance into perspective, the US software sector is marginally higher for the year.
The ASX started the week on the back foot but managed to claw back most of the early losses, finishing essentially flat after a 40pts of weakness to begin proceedings. The key driver continues to be the domestic rate outlook, with both Commonwealth Bank and ANZ shifting their view and calling a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60% next week, with credit markets now fully pricing that in.
Last week saw the ASX 200 extend its September pullback to -3.8%, taking the total decline from August’s all-time high to almost -7%. The chart below highlights the uncanny similarities with 2022, when the RBA began aggressively tightening monetary policy, and Australia’s 10-year bond yield surged from around 1.5% to 4%, weighing on equity valuations. We’ve been watching with growing interest as the index continues to track the path of 2022’s “bond tantrum” remarkably closely - rising bond yields are the common denominator in both years.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% last week, its 3rd consecutive weekly decline, but a welcome relief from the aggressive selling earlier in the month. With the Fed rate hike behind us, attention switched to the RBA on the 29th as rising bond yields continue to weigh on risk assets. We anticipate further weakness in the coming week (s), but the index is slowly gaining an air of a market “looking for a low.”
The ASX finished modestly lower, giving back a +40pt early gain as the market digested hawkish commentary from the RBA as Michele Bullock addressed parliament today.
The ASX 200 surprised many on the open yesterday, “gaping up” around 100 points above where it was “supposed” to open, leaving many scratching their heads, but as Shawn rightly pointed out, it's not the first and won't be the last example of market shenanigans on the expiry of the SPI Futures – particularly quarter end expiry. By the close, the local index still managed to finish +0.4% higher, aided by a more than +1% pop by US Futures in their late trade and an average +2% gain by the “Big Four” ASX banks.
The ASX edged higher today, extending yesterday's move, following the Federal Reserve’s move to push the cash rate higher overnight. The Fed delivered the 25bp hike as expected, though commentary pointed to further tightening as Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated a firm stance on inflation. That initially pushed global markets lower, although bond yields subsequently eased and provided some relief for equities.
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