We are selling our 4% holding in HUB24(HUB) given its traded up into our target region above $28. While we continue to like HUB, and will own it again at some point, raising cash into market strength has it’s appeal for now.
The ASX200 advanced +0.2% on Wednesday, with the utilities and energy sectors leading the market higher, even though more stocks on the main bourse ended the day in the red. On the stock level, gains were mixed, but another strong session by BHP added almost 50% of the day's gain on its own. MM remains bullish towards miners, believing they will continue to outperform the broad market as they have over the last 6-months, although we do believe several of the large tech names are close to a sharp bounce, especially if/when rate hike fears fade.
A good day to have the Market Matters Christmas lunch, with a very quiet session playing out across the board. The ASX inched higher by the close as softer-than-expected GDP data briefly rekindled hopes the RBA might not need to tighten rates in 2026.
The ASX200 tried and failed to close above 8600 on Tuesday, with mining and energy stocks again supporting a nervous index. However, ongoing weakness in the rate-sensitive stocks saw the tech -1.6%, utilities -0.4%, and consumer discretionary -0.3% sectors all retreat as bets increased that the RBA will hike rates through 2026 - traders are now pricing in a ~70% chance that Michele Bullock & Co move +0.25% by next Christmas.
The ASX steadied, clawing back a portion of yesterday’s disrupted session as strength in energy and the big miners helped offset weak sentiment in certain pockets.
The ASX 200 opened firmer on Monday, but bank-led selling aided by softer US futures reversed early gains, with the index finishing 0.6% lower. The Australian Stock Exchange suffered another embarrassing episode, potentially adding to the intra-day selling that saw almost 70% of the main board closing in negative territory at the final bell.
The expected policy path of central banks, especially the RBA and the Fed, has been the main driver of the ASX’s relative performance in recent weeks. The chart below of US and Australian short-dated bond yields illustrates the divergence that weighed on local risk assets - Australian 3-year bond yields increased ~0.5% from their recent lows while the US 2s edged down towards fresh multi-year lows.
The ASX 200 bounced back +2.4% last week following dovish comments from several Fed members. Gains were broad-based, with tech, materials, healthcare, and the industrial sectors all advancing by over 4%; only the Energy sector failed to advance. This week's rise on the ASX came despite Wednesday's higher-than-expected local inflation figures, which prompted speculation from some that the RBA may hike interest rates next year. Even so, the future path of Australian interest rates remains debated, and some market economists maintain the RBA could still cut rates from today's level of 3.6% - MM believes there will be no change, just plenty of speculation until 2027.
The ASX closed the week on a steady footing, showing resilience despite a lack of direction from offshore markets, with the US closed last night for Thanksgiving, and only a shortened Black Friday session tonight. With no meaningful lead from Wall Street and limited local corporate news flow, the local market leaned on strength in tech, defensives and gold, helping offset weakness across financials and insurers.
The ASX 200 drifted lower yesterday afternoon, surrendering most of the day's early gains to close up just +0.1%. The winners and losers arm wrestle was a close affair, but the bulls eventually triumphed, marking the index's longest daily winning streak since May, as renewed strength in the tech sector and the growing probability of a December interest rate cut from the US Fed put investors in a buying mood the day before Thanksgiving holiday, albeit tentatively.
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