HomeReportsThe Weekend Q&A: Indices take a breather as they…
The ASX200 eked out a small +0.5% gain last week in one of the quietest weeks we’ve seen since COVID shook risks assets to their very foundations, the local market rotated in an extremely tight 1% range with recession fears weighing on the resources while tech and healthcare stocks led the gains courtesy of stability returning to the bond markets as analysts start to call for central banks to pivot on rates. A classic playbook, when bond yields fall/stabilise growth stocks usually benefit often to the detriment of value names i.e. fund managers are positioning themselves for a recession:
A softer session today, giving back a portion of yesterday's solid move, though trading was quiet; volumes anemic and most focus is now on the Christmas break, with a 2.10pm close this afternoon.
Firstly, from James, Shawn & the MM Team, we wish you a happy and safe festive season. Many thanks for being a wonderful group of members, and your ongoing support throughout the year. It's been a year of two halves for the ASX and MM in many ways, but we’re finishing on the right foot across all portfolios. In todays note, we’ll run through portfolio performance, in a lighter style Christmas Eve report. A reminder, if you are considering investment options in 2026, all Market Matters Portfolios are now open for investment, via Market Matters Invest Direct, including the International Equities Portfolio which has had a stellar year, up over 25%. We will continue to work hard in 2026, building on a solid 2025.
The ASX finished sharply higher, extending its pre-Christmas rally as broad-based buying pushed the market to a six-week high and saw all sectors finish higher for the second day in a row. Optimism around US rate cuts, light year-end volumes and strong US markets overnight combined to lift risk appetite, with real estate and technology leading gains.
The ASX 200 surged to a 5-week high on Monday, closing up +0.9% as the traditional lack of selling during the festive season was met with fairly aggressive buying across the miners, who spent much of the day jockeying for position on the leaderboard. Interestingly, even as gold and silver surged to new all-time highs and copper flirted with its equivalent milestone, it was the uranium names that won this particular race:
The ASX surged today, as a rally in commodities combined with rising expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts lifted risk appetite into the Christmas break. Gold was the standout driver, with energy and uranium stocks joined the rally, and banks posting modest gains, cooling from early strength.
With a few trading days remaining, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most polarised on the performance front in decades - the materials sector is up +28%, while tech is down -21% and healthcare is off -24%. The ASX200 is up ~6% (10% inclusive of dividends) camouflaging the volatile activity on both the stock and sector levels.
The ASX 200 ended the week down -0.9%, leaving December up just +0.1% with the quiet Christmas period ahead. However, with the market set to open strongly on Monday morning, a Santa Rally could be set to arrive, albeit extremely late. Remember, the average gain for a December over the last 10 and 20 years is 1.0% and +1.2% respectively, still comfortably attainable by the local market from today’s position.
The ASX pushed higher on Friday, supported by a rebound in technology stocks and strength across the banks, following softer-than-expected US inflation data that reignited expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite today’s gains, the market is still tracking its first weekly decline in four weeks.
The ASX 200 finally found some Christmas cheer on Thursday, reversing early losses to close marginally higher, not yet the Santa Rally that we’ve been hoping for, but better than another down day. Less than 55% of the main board closed higher, but a +1.1% advance by BHP was enough to add 8 points to the index, dragging it back into positive territory. It was an extremely quiet day as traders started to focus on the Christmas break, although two stocks still managed to move by over 15%.
The ASX was on track to finish lower for a fourth consecutive session, before a solid rally in the afternoon positioned the index with its head just above water.
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