The ASX came under pressure today as another surge in oil and global bond yields weighed on risk appetite. Crude oil pushed higher as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, adding to inflation concerns at a time when global central banks are already leaning increasingly hawkish.
The ASX 200 bounced strongly from its early morning low on Tuesday, recovering ~80% of its initial drop to end the session down just -0.1%. A solid performance in our opinion, considering the negative lead from global bonds as oil prices continued to climb on renewed tensions in the Middle East.
The ASX 200 slipped every so slightly, though certainly performed better than feared given escalation in the Middle East and rate hike expectations jumping over the past few days. A renewed spike in oil prices and global bond yields was largely shrugged off at the index level, though did put pressure on rate-sensitive parts of the market as consumer names took a hit. The move was reasonably broad with 7 of 11 sectors modestly lower, though strength across Energy and parts of Resources kept the index-level decline modest.
The ASX 200 recovered impressively from an early sell-off to finish the final session of August down just -0.2%, a better outcome than we expected, with the Big Four banks adding around 30 points to the index. Interestingly, while resources retreated following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish comments on Friday and renewed tensions between the US and Iran, there was little evidence of broad-based selling.
The ASX 200 started the week on a relatively subdued note, finishing mildly lower with a strong rebound across the banks largely offset by heavy selling in Materials and Technology.
Two weeks ago, Scott Bessent emerged as one of the most interventionist US Treasury secretaries in decades, in an attempt to stem the increasing burden of the rise in US borrowing costs.
The ASX 200 edged +0.37% higher last week courtesy of a strong close on Friday afternoon and another strong performance from the Materials sector (+2.5%). Earnings season remained broadly constructive, with estimated profit growth running at ~11%, although the improvement remains heavily concentrated in resources and energy, stripping those sectors out reduces growth to around ~5%. Financials have now fallen for three consecutive weeks amid housing and mortgage concerns, while Consumer Discretionary also struggled as higher rates and slowing housing activity weighed on earnings & sentiment following this week’s higher than expected CPI.
The ASX 200 finished the week on a firmer footing, bouncing around after Thursday’s broad sell-off. The recovery was led by tech stocks, which snapped back strongly after a tough couple of sessions as Nvidia and Salesforce’s overnight rallies reignited enthusiasm for the AI trade and Software trades. The banks and miners also provided support, with seven of 11 sectors higher through the afternoon.
The ASX 200 was clobbered on Thursday, as a trifecta of bad news overshadowed another impressive result from Nvidia. Selling was broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board leading the market's worst day since June. Globally, it was a session that favoured semiconductors over miners, an unfortunate combination for the local market given the ASX is heavily exposed to the latter and has virtually none of the former:
It was a slow and painful session today with the ASX sliding hour by hour through to the close in a broad-based sell-off, with 10 of 11 sectors lower, as yesterday’s hotter-than-expected CPI print drove bond yields higher and sharply increased expectations for another RBA rate hike.
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