The Match Out: Recession fears send the market lower, OZL green lights new project. Go the Swans!

The rout in the ASX resumed today after yesterday’s holiday. Weakness in risk assets came on the back of rate hikes from the US Fed (+75bps) and the BOE (+50bps), while the FOMC Chairman also warned of a recession. Today the market was concerned with a hit to earnings expectations and the higher discount rate that comes with a hawkish Fed. Materials held up in the face of the selling as iron ore found some support thanks to improving construction activity in China and the hope for further stimulus here.

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Afternoon report 09/09/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX pulls back on bank weakness

Weakness in the banking sector weighed on the local market today, overriding optimism from Wall Street that the Fed is poised to cut rates next week. Gold remained hot with bullion hitting new all-time highs again overnight while there were some select pockets of strength elsewhere, largely amid tech and defensives.

Morning report 09/09/2025 11:53

What Matters Today: Will OPEC continue to weigh on the energy sector?

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise production again next month, highlighting the alliance’s determination to expand supply despite a looming surplus. Crude prices are down more than 10% this year on rising output and weaker demand from a soft Chinese economy and uncertainty courtesy of Trump’s trade war, yet resilience in the market has spurred Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep pushing barrels back online.

Afternoon report 08/09/2025 16:55

The Match Out: Stocks drift lower, market is losing steam

The ASX drifted lower on Monday despite a strong showing from technology, with ex-dividend names and weakness in banks and energy offsetting gains. There was a defensive undertone to the session – aside from strength in tech and lithium it wasn’t enough to outweigh pressure in banks and energy. Gold remains the standout macro theme into September with ETF flows at records, though local gold equities continue to lag – a trend we’ve written about in recent notes. The market more broadly continues to oscillate around the 8850 level, with breadth softening.

Morning report 08/09/2025 09:03

Macro Monday: Will the “Goldilocks Scenario” prevail for stocks?

U.S. job growth slowed sharply last month as unemployment climbed to its highest level since 2021, raising fears the labour market may be entering a deeper downturn. Hiring was once again led by health care, but outside that sector, total employment has fallen in three of the past four months.

Weekend report 06/09/2025 08:18

Weekend Q&A: US Jobs Report raises more questions than it delivers answers

The ASX200 was whacked 160-points on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected GDP figures tempered rate cut expectations, but by Friday’s close, the market had recovered over 80% of the fall. Nerves increased throughout the week into Friday night's pivotal US Job Report, but after the release, markets remained uncertain as Fed rate cuts looked a given following the weak numbers, but concerns started to percolate around the health of the US economy.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 17:23

The Match Out: ASX grinds higher in a ‘quiet’ session

The ASX moved higher on Friday though it was one of quietest sessions in recent memory trading in a narrow ~15pt range beyond the open, with next to no news flow to drive individual share prices in the wake of the blockbuster reporting season just gone.

Morning report 05/09/2025 09:38

ETF Friday: Looking at ETFs for Defence exposure

The ASX 200 rebounded strongly on Thursday, closing up +1%. The banks led the gains, with the “Big 4” up an average of nearly +2%, while the retail and tech names played strong supporting roles.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 20:59

The Match Out: ASX flips the switch, rebounds after heavy selloff

The ASX rebounded strongly today, recovering some of the ground lost in its sharpest one-day fall since April yesterday. A softish open relative to the finish, the index opened +40pts higher but rallied through the day, with some profit taking around midday before another surge in the second half of the session, closing within 5pts of its high.

Morning report 04/09/2025 09:13

What Matters Today: Three Portfolio moves flashing on our radar

The ASX200 hit a buyers' air pocket on Wednesday, leading to its worst day in 5 months when a weak session on Wall Street combined with a strong local GDP print of +1.8% year on year, above the 1.6% expected by economists.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 17:24

The Match Out: ASX whacked as hotter than expected growth tempers rate cut expectations.

A poor session for local stocks as stronger-than-expected GDP numbers dimmed hopes of another near-term RBA rate cut. Gold extended its record-breaking run, but tech weakness and pressure on the big banks dragged the index lower.