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SPI Futures were uber bullish overnight up nearly 100pts, outpacing gains in other markets and that drove a bump on open for stocks, however, it didn’t last with the main board giving back the lion’s share of gains as the day progressed, ultimately trading more than 50pts off the early highs – a sign of exhaustion in the short term after a great rally in stocks.

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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: Astronomical AI spending reverberates through global equities

What a week. Markets ran for cover as fears mounted that artificial intelligence (AI) could render many software business models redundant, or at least sharply devalue them. The issue was compounded by the fact that many of these software names were trading on lofty valuations in the anticipation of unrelenting growth. The potential risk of contraction compared to expansion has seen numerous household names halve in value over the last 6 months, from Xero and WiseTech on the ASX to Atlassian and Adobe in the US.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Volatility surges & reporting season is only getting started

The ASX 200 ended a volatile week down -1.8%, but it felt far worse on Friday when the index tumbled more than 2% - at least it should recover half of those losses on Monday morning. We received a rate hike last week, but it hardly registered with investors, focusing on three major themes: • The disruption by AI across the software sector, with negative sentiment spreading to tech in general. • Profit-taking in the commodity markets with silver plunging over 16% in just a matter of hours. • Risk off in general with Bitcoin plunging to its lowest level since late 2024.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at the market’s volatility through the eye of an ETF lens

The ASX 200 had a fairly quiet day at the index level, while at the stock/sector level, it was like Guy Fawkes night, with fireworks flying in every direction. Thursday's session saw further aggressive selling across the high-flying resources, while some recently out-of-favour stocks came back into favour as selective bargain hunting played out across the ASX. Perhaps some switching/rotation is taking hold as commodity prices look to cool.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Volatile Commodities drag Materials stocks & ASX lower

The ASX snapped a two-day winning streak today, with a sharp pullback in commodities weighing heavily on miners and overwhelming broader strength across defensives and financials. Losses were concentrated in materials while money rotated into healthcare, insurers and the major banks, while tech trod water after yesterday's savage sell-off.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
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