Portfolio Positioning: Stocks starting to digest that rates cuts might be further-off

Tuesday delivered a fascinating session for Australian investors. A macro arm wrestle unfolded, causing significant action under the hood before the index eventually slipped just -0.1 %. This was a solid performance, in our opinion, considering Thursday’s storming session to end the quarter. The bulls welcomed a resurgence in China-facing stocks, while interest rate-sensitive names struggled as the doves pulled back bets on a Fed rate cut in June. We’re conscious that over recent years, bonds and stocks haven’t walked a different path for very long.

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Afternoon report 02/12/2025 16:44

The Match Out: ASX steadies with a ‘quiet’ session

The ASX steadied, clawing back a portion of yesterday’s disrupted session as strength in energy and the big miners helped offset weak sentiment in certain pockets.

Morning report 02/12/2025 10:03

What Matters Today: Is Metcash ringing alarm bells for the Supermarkets?

The ASX 200 opened firmer on Monday, but bank-led selling aided by softer US futures reversed early gains, with the index finishing 0.6% lower. The Australian Stock Exchange suffered another embarrassing episode, potentially adding to the intra-day selling that saw almost 70% of the main board closing in negative territory at the final bell.

Afternoon report 01/12/2025 16:36

The Match Out: Stocks drift lower as the ASX deals with another bungle

Morning report 01/12/2025 09:38

Macro Monday: The RBA weighs on the ASX compared to its peers

The expected policy path of central banks, especially the RBA and the Fed, has been the main driver of the ASX’s relative performance in recent weeks. The chart below of US and Australian short-dated bond yields illustrates the divergence that weighed on local risk assets - Australian 3-year bond yields increased ~0.5% from their recent lows while the US 2s edged down towards fresh multi-year lows.

Weekend report 29/11/2025 09:05

Weekend Q&A: Rate cut optimism in the US drives stocks higher

The ASX 200 bounced back +2.4% last week following dovish comments from several Fed members. Gains were broad-based, with tech, materials, healthcare, and the industrial sectors all advancing by over 4%; only the Energy sector failed to advance. This week's rise on the ASX came despite Wednesday's higher-than-expected local inflation figures, which prompted speculation from some that the RBA may hike interest rates next year. Even so, the future path of Australian interest rates remains debated, and some market economists maintain the RBA could still cut rates from today's level of 3.6% - MM believes there will be no change, just plenty of speculation until 2027.

Afternoon report 28/11/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX firms in quiet session, posts best weekly gain in 2025 up +2.35%

The ASX closed the week on a steady footing, showing resilience despite a lack of direction from offshore markets, with the US closed last night for Thanksgiving, and only a shortened Black Friday session tonight. With no meaningful lead from Wall Street and limited local corporate news flow, the local market leaned on strength in tech, defensives and gold, helping offset weakness across financials and insurers.

Morning report 28/11/2025 09:17

ETF Friday: Looking at Four “new age” ETFs

The ASX 200 drifted lower yesterday afternoon, surrendering most of the day's early gains to close up just +0.1%. The winners and losers arm wrestle was a close affair, but the bulls eventually triumphed, marking the index's longest daily winning streak since May, as renewed strength in the tech sector and the growing probability of a December interest rate cut from the US Fed put investors in a buying mood the day before Thanksgiving holiday, albeit tentatively.

Afternoon report 27/11/2025 17:06

The Match Out: ASX notches 4th straight win, but loses some steam

The ASX couldn’t hold early gains, with weakness in the oil names overpowering a solid tech-led rally. By the close, the ASX 200 was up just +10pts, despite nine sectors trading higher.

Morning report 27/11/2025 10:02

What Matters Today: The music’s on full blast at the M&A party – who could be next?

The ASX200 advanced +0.8% on Wednesday, although another hot CPI reading took the edge off the strong performance. Well over 70% of the main board closed higher, with the miners again the shining light while the banks reversed early gains with two closing lower as the influential sector struggles in the face of no further rate cuts by the RBA.

Afternoon report 26/11/2025 16:37

The Match Out: Hotter inflation cools rate cut hopes, ASX up, but well-off highs, National Storage (NSR) receives bid

A hotter-than-expected inflation print has poured some cold water on what was shaping up as a very strong rebound for the ASX today. The market opened firmly, riding a strong lead from Wall Street and growing conviction around a December cut from the US Fed — but local data somewhat changed the tone.