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Overseas indices were firm into the weekend, with European bourses setting the tone early, with the EURTO STOXX 50 gaining +0.68% and the German DAX +0.85%. In the US, the S&P500 closed above 5800 for the first time as the banking behemoths ushered in a promising start to the third-quarter earnings season by powering it and the Dow to fresh highs. A distinct broadening of the performance barometer saw JP Morgan Chase (JPM US) rise +4.4% after topping profit and revenue expectations, while Wells Fargo (W US) popped +5.6% on stronger-than-expected profits. Interestingly, Investors overlooked disappointing revenue and an 11% decline in net interest income.
A quiet session to round out a solid week for the ASX (+0.8%) as we await more news from China around fiscal policy, to complement the monetary policy support already in play. The stage has been set for tomorrow morning, and whatever happens, it will have a bearing on how markets and some sectors in particular trade into year end. Over to you, My Fo’an!
The ASX200 posted a 10-day high on Thursday and finally closed up +0.4%; support came from the miners who improved throughout the day ahead of Saturday’s much-anticipated announcements from China’s Finance Minister. After Tuesday’s disappointing stimulus updates from Beijing, we expect them to “try harder” this time!
Similar to yesterday, the index felt tired even though it made reasonable gains overall driven by a resurgent material sector as another policy update from China looms.
We are making several changes across portfolios today
The ASX200 finished up just +0.1% in a choppy session on Wednesday, with the banks offsetting further weakness by the miners – a 6.67% plunge by Chinese stocks didn’t help. A 1.8% surge in New Zealand’s equities after the RBNZ cut rates by 0.5% helped local sentiment. Still, it wasn’t enough to make meaningful gains as the heavyweight iron ore miners dragged the chain due to China’s lack of further stimulus measures on Tuesday. However, we wouldn’t fight Beijing, who announced yesterday evening AEST that further announcements will follow on Saturday when markets are closed—we “wouldn’t be short for quids.
The ASX felt tired today, having pushed up ~50 points early on, the optimism was lost when China came online at 12.30pm and fell ~4% dragging down resources stocks that dominated the detractors, with BHP now ~6% from its highs last week as investors fret over a lack of detail on China’s stimulus plans.
The ASX200 retreated -0.35% on Tuesday after a briefing from China’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on further stimulus. We thought there was a distinct risk of “buy on rumour and sell on fact” playing out, but instead, with few facts actually being released, it was simply a case of sell.
A choppy session for local stocks, keying off Asian-inspired volatility as China came back online post their Golden Week holiday. China shares were +10% on open before losing more than 50% of the gains while Hong Kong shares fell ~6% by our close, having been open for the past week.
Recent stimulus announced by Beijing and the PBOC included interest-rate cuts, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term depreciation in property prices – as we’ve said before a “whatever it takes approach”. Chinese stocks are due to reopen this morning after enjoying the Golden Week break, with many analysts now expecting further gains into Christmas.
