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A reasonable day for the ASX buoyed by relative calm in Asia, the Nikkei in Japan up ~1% while US Futures also improved during our time zone. Buying was tentative, but broad-based, with 9/11 sectors trading higher. We get the sense that volatility is not over, more likely to be a pause, the carry trade in Japan still has some way to play out, and given we don’t get any data of substance in the US for the remainder of the week to throw markets much in either direction, a period of consolidation in the very short term seems the most likely scenario.
The market clearly doubts whether the RBA seriously considered another hike. We’ve been saying for months that the RBA doesn’t want to hike, although it’s not totally off the table, and this view still feels on point. A few days of market volatility, largely driven by the unwind of the “Yen Carry Trade”, isn’t enough to make central banks cut interest rates; inflation is their primary focus, although they will remain vigilant to external circumstances, including ongoing market volatility. If we stand back and put things into context, the ASX200 is up +1.2% in 2024 and posted new all-time highs last week, numbers that shouldn’t unsettle the RBA.
No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!
The ASX200 plunged almost 300 points on Monday as global equity markets continued to panic that a recession was imminent for the US and the rest of the world would follow suit. Nobody felt the pain more than Japan following the BOJ’s rate hike last week; the Nikkei was down a staggering 12.4%, its worst day since “Black Monday” in 1987, wiping out all of this year’s gains in one fell swoop. We believe the unwinding of the “Carry Trade” has been the catalyst that has ignited the current volatility – more on this later. Market sentiment has turned on a sixpence as reduced liquidity collided with the perceived increased risk of an economic slowdown; cash has become the asset class of choice for many investors, i.e. if in doubt, get out! Everything from stocks, gold and Bitcoin, has sold as “risk off” ruled dominated over recent days.
A brutal day across markets, the worst since 2020, with the ASX200 whacked 3.7%, Small Caps hit 4.5%, Japanese stocks down over 10%, with 99% of the main board in Australia closing lower (i.e. 2 stocks out of 200 finished up)! Our market started on the back foot but as Asian markets struggled and US Futures continued lower (Nasdaq Futures down 5.5% at our close), there was no reason to stand in front of the momentum – the index closing only ~15 points above its nadir. This is a headline-grabbing day, and taken in isolation, it’s a big move by the market, however, the magnitude is at least partially a product of just how strong the market has been, hitting a new record high at 8148 only 3-sessions ago.
We are taking profit on a stock across both the Growth & Income Portfolios
The end of last week saw a significant change in the market’s perception of “bad economic news”. Instead of being embraced by equities in anticipation of future interest rate cuts, it led to aggressive selling as fears of a recession escalated exponentially.
Overseas equities fell away on Friday night as recession fears increased, with the EURO STOXX 50 -2.7% and German DAX -2.3% leading the declines. In the US, it was another brutal night, with the S&P500 plunging 1.8% and the Dow over 600 points after the jobs report sent investors running for cover. Some tech megacap names saw heavy losses during the day after Amazon’s 2nd quarter results sparked investor concerns about Big Tech’s blowout levels of artificial intelligence-related (AI) capital spending. The e-commerce giant slid 8.8% after missing analyst estimates and issuing a disappointing forecast.
A tough session for equities to end the week and after twice making new all-time highs the ASX200 finds itself up just +0.25% for the week, well under the psychical 8000 level after testing 8150 on Thursday morning. A heavy fall on Wall Street set the tone and as recession fears escalated after weak US economic data tipped the scales away from the heavily embraced “Goldilocks” view.
US equities endured a tough session on Thursday night as a new chapter was turned with rate cuts fully built into markets but fears of a recession are gaining momentum. The concept of a ‘hard landing’ has felt like a dormant beast, with bad economic news being welcomed by stocks because it stoked optimism about rate cuts; this has now changed, with traders now scarred that the Fed have been too slow cutting rates and a tougher economic reality is a real possibility. The bond market is already telling us that Jerome Powell et al. may be behind the curve. Not all stocks felt the selling, with Meta Platforms (META US) closing up +4.8% on stronger-than-expected 2nd quarter results and upbeat guidance.
