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We are making several changes to this International Equities Portfolio.
Overseas stocks experienced a mixed night, and European indices delivered varied performances. The EURO STOXX 50 advanced 0.3%, while the FTSE fell -0.15%. The US market delivered an impressive turnaround after initially plunging on a higher-than-expected inflation print – US August CPI +0.3% MoM versus 0.2% expected. Stocks initially tumbled after the CPI but investors chased shares of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names in afternoon trading with heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA US) closing up +8.2%.
A weak session for the US banks, not something we’ve seen on the local bourse this year, dragged the Dow lower overnight but not in any meaningful manner. The American banking sector has been consolidating its strong advance from its 2023 low around current levels for the last six months, albeit in a volatile manner. Following the comments from JPM, a re-test of the August lows wouldn’t surprise; around 8% lower. This is not a great read-through for the ASX banks, which are trading at multi-year highs.
Yesterday the market was weak on open and rallied, today the opposite played out, strong on open before tapering off throughout the day implying indecision remains. Banks hit their highs in the morning, Resources were mixed, though Energy, led by Uranium stocks fired up after a tough period.
A quick chemistry lesson: The rare earth elements (REE) are seventeen metallic elements, which are categorised into Light Rare Earths (lanthanum to samarium) and Heavy Rare Earths (europium to lutetium). Rare-earth elements (REE) are necessary for more than 200 products across various applications, especially high-tech consumer products, such as mobile phones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, flat-screen monitors and televisions. The REE market is valued at $US6.0 bn in 2024 and is projected to increase to $US10.9 bn by 2029.
The excuse for Friday’s sell-off was about a poor labour market print, however, non-farms barely missed the mark, consistent with cooling and normalisation as opposed to an economy on the cusp of recession, which is how the market seemed to interpret it. In any case, we continue to expect heightened volatility through September as the market lurches from data point to data point.
US stocks were hit on Friday night after a weak Jobs Report increased fears that the Fed is behind the curve with interest rate cuts. This leads to an increased chance of their economy slipping into a recession, as opposed to the “Goldilocks Scenario,” which investors have embraced through most of 2024. It reminds us of going back to school and the dreaded Calculus, particularly a sinusoidal wave with the top being the “Goldilocks Scenario” and the bottom a recession. US equities have been ignoring several leading indicators over recent months, but the bears came home to roost on Friday night.
The ASX200 slipped 1% last week, with Wednesday’s +150-point plunge dominating the five days. Again, the rate-sensitive banks, real estate, and tech sectors stemmed the losses, but the broad market fell, with the sellers again paying particular attention to China-facing stocks. Last night, recession fears hit US tech and consumer discretionary sectors the hardest; the real estate stocks held firm on interest rate hopes, illustrating the fascinating landscape ahead into Christmas – it would catch traders off guard if China growth sentiment trumped that of the US into 2025, its certainly at a low point today!
Just one those weeks! Glad to see the back of it where our portfolio positioning in our Growth Portfolio was put under pressure. Too heavy in resources at a time of global growth worries, too slow to dial it back and now we need to take a deep breath because selling/reducing exposure after the horse has bolted is a rarely a good move. As we wrote during the week, if we didn’t have the positions we do, we’d be stepping up to the plate, however, prudent portfolio management means we can only go so far.
