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Rocks and diamonds for the market today, with the index pushing higher throughout the session on broad based gains, though a few big (downside) moves from some high-profile stocks captured most of the headlines, with Billionaires Chris Ellison (MIN) and Richard White (WTC) in the media crosshairs while Nick Scali (NCK) gave a softer trading update and fell.
The bookies suddenly have Donald Trump as a standout favourite for next month’s election. With two weeks to go, he’s rated ~58% chance to win – it’s still a coin toss to us. However, over recent weeks, equity markets have weighed back into stocks benefitting from a Republican victory after previously swinging towards the Democrats following the Kamala Harris v Donald Trump debate.
Last week was a choppy affair for the ASX200, which, even after Friday’s aggressive 0.87% sell-off, still closed up 0.84% courtesy of a storming week for the financials. The action on the stocks/sector level remains more interesting than the too often tracked index, with the financials advancing +4.1% while the utilities, energy and tech sectors retreated 4.4%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. We remain net bullish on the market into 2025, but if you’ve backed the wrong horse, it’s still likely to be a tough ride.
The market gave back all of yesterdays gains in a soft end to a positive week for stocks. The ASX 200 trading at a new all-time high of 8384 yesterday and while todays sell-off had some sting about it, the market was still up 0.8% for the week led by a bounce back in the financial stocks. Gold was strong in Asia today, cracking through $US2700/oz for the first time in history!
The ASX200 rallied 0.86% on Thursday, bringing the local index within striking distance of 8400 for the first time. Gains were broad-based, with ~75% of the main board closing higher, but the banks contributed the most points, with the “Big Four” closing up an average of 1.8% following a strong overnight result by Morgan Stanley (MS US) and stronger than expected employment data locally. We hate to be boring, but “the ASX doesn’t go down without the banks.”
A choppy but position session overall for the ASX, with a very bullish open (market up ~90pts at the highs), before a hotter than expected read on local employment sent bond yields higher (3’s up 5bps to 3.8%), the AUD was bought (+0.4% to 66.91c) while equities were sold as the timing of rate cuts got pushed further out into the Never Never…the market now pricing only a 20% chance of a cut this side of Christmas with the first full 25bps cut now not priced in until April 25.
The ASX200 slipped 0.4% on Wednesday, rotating through the day to close at a similar level to where it opened. The banks advanced throughout the session, with the financial sector ultimately finishing up by +0.27%. Conversely, the other ten main sectors closed lower, led by tech, which fell -1.35%, following the weak overnight session by their peers on Wall Street. There were a couple of interesting moves within the resources sector, both of which are worth monitoring.
The ASX pulled back from all-time highs today, and despite a decent session from the financials, all other sectors finished lower, with most of the selling coming late in the day.
The ASX200 rallied +0.79% on Tuesday, taking the local index above 8300 for the first time. Buying was broad-based, with over 80% of the main board closing in positive territory, but it was financials, healthcare, and tech stocks that led the line, with all three sectors closing over +2.3% higher. The index opened on the front foot following gains on Wall Street and ground higher through the day on an absence of selling in a market that “feels” underweight, especially in some of the influential pockets.
New all-time highs for the ASX today, breaking out above 8300 for the first time as money found it’s way back into the banks while the resources remained pretty well supported – 80% of the main board finished higher. The breakout feels almost lethargic, which is not a bad thing, with stocks grinding to new highs as opposed to exploding towards them on a news-driven event that could quickly dissipate i.e. the market feels like it has sustainable legs here.
