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Today’s price action is typical of this time of year as many wind down for Christmas – moves get amplified on low volume and the market can start to trade in a more exaggerated way.
The ASX200 slipped another -0.56% on Monday, closing at its lowest level in a month ahead of global rate decisions. The local benchmark retreated for the fifth straight session, its longest losing streak since April. Losses were broad-based, with over 70% of the main board retreating but led by mining and real estate stocks.
Macro dominated the ASX today with the markets losing streak extending to 5 sessions – a drought of corporate announcements as we crawl into 2nd half of December with many businesses entering shutdowns over the holiday period.
The last year has been a roller-coaster for bonds, with analysts changing their minds about the path for RBA rate rises/cuts like the weather! The only constant has been RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who has been consistent in her message to the market, i.e. don’t get too optimistic towards rate cuts as inflation remained sticky. That all changed on Tuesday afternoon.
The ASX200 ended the second week of December down by 1.48%, with the tech sector leading the retreat, tumbling by 5.7%. This was accompanied by real estate, financials, and industrials, which all declined by around 2%. The consumer staples and materials sectors were the only pockets to close up for the week, and they both advanced less than 0.1%. On the stock front, we saw some standout performance reversion from trends of 2024:
The index closed lower for the 4th straight session, breaching the 8300 level but finding some support and bouncing 40 points off its lows, the ‘Santa Rally’ now well and truly in reverse with the market having retraced 3 weeks of gains.
The ASX200 opened firmly on Thursday before reversing more than 50 points to finish the session down 0.3%. Strong unemployment data did not help the day, reining in bets for an RBA rate cut in February.
A soft session locally with the kibosh put on a positive open mid-morning as employment data was stronger than expected casting a shadow over the RBA’s new found dovish stance, the market quickly bringing back the probability of a February cut to a coin toss.
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The market further embraced Tuesday’s more dovish rhetoric from Michele Bullock on Wednesday as bonds rallied (yields lower) and the Aussie Dollar fell to fresh 2024 lows on the prospect of RBA rate cuts in 2025. Our preferred scenario is unchanged, but the risks have certainly skewed to a more aggressive path by the RBA.
