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The ASX recouped all on Friday’s losses and some as low volumes (Sydney CBD was a ghost town today) colluded with a more favourable read on US inflation on Friday night to propel stocks higher. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Feds preferred measure came in softer than expected which cast a shadow on Jerome Powells turn of phrase/view on rates earlier last week.
The ASX200 was thumped 2.76% last week after the Fed side-swiped credit markets on Wednesday when, after cutting rates 0.25%, they delivered a less dovish outlook for interest rates than was expected;
• The Fed revised its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, indicating that there will be two reductions, down from the four forecasted in September – a reasonable change in just three months.
• Credit markets have already become sceptical towards the two cuts and are now pricing in a 50-50 chance that the 2nd won’t be forthcoming before next Christmas.
• Markets have been concerned that Trump’s policies will lift inflation. The Fed appears to be getting ahead of the curve, just in case.
The ASX200 ended a volatile and tough week, down 2.76% hitting a 100-day low on Friday. The Fed was the catalyst after cutting interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday night, but at the same time, it moved the proverbial goalposts in terms of the future path in 2025. The Fed revised its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, indicating two reductions, down from the four previously forecasted in September.
The ASX sold off early, down ~100 points and coasting sideways for the remainder of the session with investors squaring away positions and locking in profits as the final full trading week for 2024 came to an end.
The ASX200 was thumped 141 points, or 1.7% on Thursday courtesy of Jerome Powell’s change of tune, which saw the forecasted path of US interest rates shift.
The magnitude of the selloff in the U.S last night didn’t quite translate to the ASX today – a case of the bigger they are, the harder they fall. The ASX was hit hard early, down ~180pts at the 11am low before recovering 20% of the decline to finish off ~140pts.
The ASX200 ended down -0.1 % on Wednesday; the market looked excellent around midday, but the bears took over in the afternoon, with the Treasurer’s mid-year economic update potentially weighing on the confidence of the local market.
It was a story of one step forward and one step back today – the morning looked promising as the index crept up 50 points and knocked on the door of the 8,350 level, but buying grew tired and sellers flocked in to square away positions for the holiday period as we closed where we set off for the day.
We are amending our bank exposures in the Income Portfolio
Yesterday, an index of Asian currencies retreated to a two-year low. Pessimism towards China’s economic outlook, coupled with the belief that Trump would support the Greenback, has sent the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) down more than 4% since late September.
