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Tuesday saw local shares pare early gains to finish only slightly higher as US futures slipped away on escalating conflict in the Middle East. The ASX200 closed up just 6 points, surrendering almost 90% of its early morning gain, although over 60% of the main board managed to advance.
A solid start to trade this morning with the main board rallying back above 7900, however, sellers kicked into gear from just before midday with the index finishing ~60pts below the morning highs.
The ASX200 enjoyed its best day in two weeks on Monday, rallying +0.8%. Gains were driven by a strong performance from the miners and a solid supporting role by the banks; the combination of BHP, CBA, and ANZ contributed over 50% of the main boards’ advance.
The ASX closed in positive territory for a second consecutive trading session, not seen since the market all-time high of 8615 was set back on February 14. The market opened strongly and didn’t look back as news that China would implement stimulus to support its share market and property market, as well as intent to boost real incomes, provided a broad boost to sentiment. Promising Chinese consumer data was out mid-morning, sustaining the move up through to the close.
We all know that stocks have endured a tough few weeks as fears of an escalating Global Trade War and subsequent recession washed through risk assets. However, most pundits are blaming the new President, but we should remember a couple of related factors. With the S&P 500 trading at 27x reported earnings in January, Trump inherited one of the highest-priced stock markets in history.
It was another tough week for local stocks, with the ASX200 closing down another 2%, extending the aggressive pullback to 10.2%, the market’s largest 4-week decline since 2020. Eight of the eleven mainboard sectors declined, spearheaded by the tech, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, all of which fell over 3%. Performance reversion was again the main game in town, with the resources performing well at the expense of many high-flyers over the last year.
With futures pointing down -12pts prior to the session following weak US markets, it looked all but certain we were in for another negative day but fresh all-time highs for gold and a bounce in iron ore overnight provided a much needed boost to the miners.
The ASX200 struggled again on Thursday, reversing early gains to close down 0.5%. The local market received a one-two on Thursday, the US futures reversed lower, and Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating of Australian equities to underweight, highlighting concerns over Australia’s exposure to trade war risks and elevated valuations – we feel like they are late to the party!
The market was higher this morning coming off a positive overnight session in the States, though, US Futures tracked lower during our time zone weighing on our market as the day progressed. The last three Friday’s have also been particularly weak so understandable that traders are nervous making any big bets on the penultimate day of the week, the index currently down ~2.5% since Monday.
The ASX200 plunged another 1.3% on Wednesday, making it official that the tariff pullback is now a correction. The market has fallen more than 10% from its Valentine’s Day high – excuse the analogy, but it does feel like a “Valentine’s Day Massacre,” which coincidentally unfolded in Chicago in 1929, the year of one of the most significant stock market collapses in history.
