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The market opened on the back foot early, down ~70pts at the lows before recovering over half of the early decline to finish only ~100pts below the all-time high. Results season now kicks into gear and today is indicative of what we’ll see from now on; i.e. stocks that have run into results will need to deliver for the half and also in terms of guidance.
The US jobs data released on Friday showed that the US labour market remains strong, increasing the odds that the Fed will remain patient on interest rate cuts. The more President Donald Trump threatens tariffs on the US’s trading partners, the more worry another inflation wave troubles global economists.
The ASX200 slipped slightly in the first week of February ending down -0.24% with the healthcare and utilities sectors weighing on the market while the tech and materials stocks helped limit losses. It was an overall turbulent week for stocks as earnings season kicks into gear. The prospect of lower interest rates, trade war jitters and resilient consumer spending added to the day-to-day volatility. Local shares closed out the week flat with a negative tilt as traders remained cautious ahead of the US Payrolls report, which will influence the Fed’s decision on interest rate cuts.
A mildly softer end to a volatile week for equities that started on Monday with a ~2% decline on tariff concerns before recovering to knock-off on Friday afternoon only mildly lower – not a bad effort.
The ASX200 surged towards new highs on Thursday as the buyers drove any resistance into submission throughout a day of relentless buying, with the rate-sensitive financials, consumer discretionary and real estate names leading the gains.
The bulls came to play today with the influential banks driving a strong session overall, pushing the ASX 200 back up through 8500, just ~50pts below all-time highs. The next catalyst has to be earnings as 1H25 results season kicks into gear. Suppose efficiency benefits put in since COVID dovetail in to a better economic outlook predicated on easing inflation, robust employment, good consumption and likely interest rate cuts.
The ASX200 bounced +0.5% on Wednesday and although it still finished well off its intra-day high it was an encouraging session for local stocks who shrugged off weak US futures, following Googles softer than hoped result.
A better finish for stocks today with the market holding onto the early gains, booking its first positive finish for the week so far. Trade tariffs remain front and centre with China’s move to target US energy providing a catalyst for Australian producers and supporting the broader mining sector as a result.
The news out of the Whitehouse is crossing our screens at unprecedented speed, and traders are dancing accordingly. With Chinas 15% tariff having “Trumped” the US President’s 10% move, we have to think, what next. We’re sure Trump wont sit back and do nothing. Yesterday morning felt like Trumps “Art of the Deal” had brought global markets back from the brink of a Trade War but China will prove a far tougher adversary, as we’ve already seen by their retaliation as opposed to acquiescence. However, after two volatile nights of US trade, earnings season remains more important to markets, at least for now.
The ASX rose sharply in early trade, up 67pts at the get go before the rally ran out of steam in the afternoon, void of the backbone provided by the banks, while U.S futures came under pressure late in the session when China announced an investigation into Google for alleged antitrust violations and imposed new tariffs on US products in response to Trump’s 10% tariff on goods from Beijing.
